3 things on Packers offense vs Patriots: Catch the ball! - Packers Wire

The Green Bay Packers travel to Foxborough on Sunday to take on a New England Patriots team which represented the AFC in the Super Bowl last season.

If New England’s successful 2025 regular season was built on Drake Maye’s performance, their postseason run was driven by an impressive defense which will present an interesting challenge for Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur this week.

New England’s defensive numbers are strong through eight weeks, ranking ninth in the NFL in points allowed per game at 20.3.

However, that average is helped by the Patriots feasting on some less inspiring offenses, and when they have faced high level quarterbacks, they have allowed a lot of points.

Offenses led by Drew Lock, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith and Malik Willis averaged only 14.2 points. Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen and Caleb Williams put up an average of 30.3.

Green Bay obviously got off to a rough start but have rounded into shape mostly due to the consistently excellent play of Love. The Packers quarterback is seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play since Week 4 and will pose a tough test for Mike Vrabel and Zak Kuhr’s group.

The Patriots are also not the same defense when playing from behind, ranking 10th in EPA/play allowed when leading, 8th when tied and 31st when trailing.

When they are not shooting themselves in the foot, Green Bay’s offense has shown they can put up points against anyone. The same will be true this week.

The Packers have cleaned up their early-season issues in pass protection, allowing the sixth lowest pressure rate since Week 4 and the ninth lowest since Week 2.

They have not been flawless though, and while finding a better combination of O-linemen has certainly helped, so has the fact Green Bay has only faced one defense ranking in the top ten in pressure rate since the Falcons bludgeoned them back in Week 3.

New England comes into this game fourth in the NFL in pressure rate and they do it by committee. Dre’Mont Jones is 14th out of 113 qualified edge rushers in pass rush win rate, while rookie second-round pick Gabe Jacas is 19th and Elijah Ponder is 39th.

On the interior, Christian Barmore ranks 14th among 130 qualified defensive tackles and Joshua Farmer is 20th. The Patriots are also seventh in blitz rate and use six or more rushers at the third-highest rate. Christian Elliss and Robert Spillane are regularly sent from the linebacker position.

Everyone knows the drill by now. If Love is kept upright, the Packers are going to have a fruitful day on offense. New England’s front will threaten to ruin that formula on Sunday.

The Patriots have cornerbacks they trust in Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis on the outside, which explains why they use man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league.

Their defense ranks seventh in contested target rate, but is still only 23rd in completion rate allowed, indicating that although New England’s secondary is challenging opponents, they are not exactly locking them down.

Green Bay’s issues with drops are well known, and this week the challenge for the pass catchers will be not only to secure the catch when they’re open, but to make a play for their quarterback when he gives them a chance in tight coverage, as Love surely will.

Christian Watson has been reliable in that regard, winning 58.8% of 17 contested targets. Only Chris Olave has a better success rate on at least that many targets. But Matthew Golden is down at 40% (six of 15) after winning four of his six last year.

This offense is operating on fine margins right now without a viable run game. Against a high level opponent like the Patriots, they cannot afford to leave too many plays out on the field, and that means winning 50/50 opportunities and holding on to the ball in traffic.

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