5 charts that explain the economy’s role in the midterm elections

The state of the U.S. economy ahead of the midterms in five charts04:56Get more newsonShareAdd NBC News to GoogleNov. 2, 2026, 5:30 AM ESTBy Kayla Steinberg and Christine RomansBack in 1980, Ronald Reagan asked, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

On Tuesday, millions of Americans will answer for themselves whether they are better off than they were two years ago, when they vote in the midterm elections.

Top of mind for many Americans: the economy. In a recent NBC News Decision Desk Poll, the economy ranked as the issue that matters most to voters and one on which a majority say they are deeply frustrated with President Donald Trump.

Here are the five charts that explain why.

At the start of Trump’s second term, paychecks were rising faster than prices. But consumer prices have soared since the war with Iran started, and for the last six months, inflation has outpaced wage gains. In September, inflation jumped to 3.7%, while wages rose just 3% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A big driver of those rising consumer prices: spiking energy costs as a result of the war with Iran.

Regular gas prices averaged $3.12 per gallon when Trump started his second term and $2.98 right before the war, according to AAA. Now they’re well above $4 — the highest regular gas prices have been just before an election.

Diesel prices have surged to all-time highs in recent weeks. They were averaging $3.63 at the start of Trump’s second term and $3.75 when the war with Iran began. Now they’re well above $6. And higher costs for diesel — which powers trucks, trains and tractors — typically spill into the rest of the economy.

Mortgage rates topped 7% in January 2025, but they fell over the first year of Trump’s second term. The 30-year fixed rate dipped below 6% just before the Iran war, according to Freddie Mac. Since then, mortgage rates have soared — with the 30-year fixed rate well above 7% now. The 15-year fixed rate has spiked, too, jumping above 6%.

Historically speaking, it’s not uncommon to see U.S. mortgage rates above 7%. But paired with average home prices that have jumped 57% since January 2020, the higher rates mean many Americans looking to buy homes are simply getting priced out of the housing market. The average price of a single-family home was $422,700 in September, according to the National Association of Realtors.

At the same time that buyers are feeling priced out, homeowners are sitting on more than $35 trillion in real estate equity as of the second quarter of 2026, according to the Federal Reserve. That figure has more than doubled over the last decade. Of course, for most people it’s still money on paper — you can’t easily use it to buy a Halloween costume or fill up your gas tank.

The stock market overall has done very well during Trump’s second term, and the S&P 500 index has soared by more than 26%.

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But artificial intelligence spending and generally strong corporate earnings have propelled the S&P 500 to record highs in recent weeks.

But all that wealth in stock market gains reflects a broader divide in America: Wall Street investors’ wealth has grown over the second Trump administration.

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But for millions of Americans, it’s still hard to keep up month to month, let alone get ahead — something that will be on many voters’ minds Tuesday at the ballot box.

Kayla SteinbergKayla Steinberg is a producer at NBC News covering business and the economy.

Christine RomansChristine Romans is the chief business correspondent at NBC News.