Abdul El-Sayed Gets Boost in Michigan Race as Forecaster Shifts Outlook

Abdul El-Sayed has received a boost over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s closely watched Senate race, after a prominent election forecaster shifted its rating in the Democrat’s favor.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Michigan’s open Senate race from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic,” citing “a persistently poor national environment for Republicans” as a central factor behind its latest ratings changes.

It said it had already considered Abdul El-Sayed a “soft favorite” and was formalizing that assessment by placing the contest in the new, Democratic-leaning category.

Newsweek reached out to El-Sayed and Rogers’ campaigns for comment, via email and online contact form, respectively, on Wednesday.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball said that polling has generally given El-Sayed a narrow advantage over Rogers.

In its update on Tuesday, it highlighted a Suffolk University poll showing El-Sayed ahead 47 percent to 40 percent, although it described that result as a favorable outlier for him and cautioned that the poll’s recalled 2024 presidential vote indicated an electorate notably to the left of Michigan’s actual 2024 result.

A separate Washington Post/Schar School poll it cited had El-Sayed ahead by a narrower 48 percent to 45 percent. Respondents in that poll preferred a Democratic Senate by 53 percent to 45 percent, however, which the Crystal Ball said showed that El-Sayed was underperforming while potentially retaining room to improve.

It also added that while Rogers has generally remained close in polling, he has typically struggled to move much beyond 45 percent.

Despite the update, Sabato’s Crystal Ball said it “[continued] to believe that progressive [El-Sayed] will underperform what a Democratic Senate candidate could or should get in Michigan in a year like 2026.”

El-Sayed’s chances of winning Michigan’s Senate race surged on prediction market Polymarket, according to an update shared Tuesday.

As of Wednesday, the platform has El-Sayed ahead of Rogers, 73 percent to 28 percent.

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts linked to specific outcomes. While these markets can react rapidly to new developments, the prices reflect the views and behavior of traders rather than a representative survey of voters.

El-Sayed campaigned alongside former Vice President Kamala Harris at a Detroit birth center Tuesday, marking the pair’s first joint public appearance since she endorsed him after his primary win in August.

"We have 42 days left. What we do in those six weeks will make a huge difference," El-Sayed said before thanking Harris for her visit.

Rogers and El-Sayed have recently exchanged attacks on social media over the Iran war and crime policy.

In a Tuesday post on X, El-Sayed shared a map of the U.S. produced by statistician and data journalist Nate Silver, which highlighted Michigan as one of the states where regular gas prices had increased the most.

“Michigan,” El-Sayed wrote. “Thanks to Donald Trump’s outrageous war in Iran, cosigned by Mike Rogers.”

Rogers, meanwhile, attacked his opponent over crime policy, writing that El-Sayed “supports defunding the police and emptying prisons.

“Michigan families can’t afford his pro-crime policies,” added Rogers.

The latest update to Sabato’s Crystal Ball also moved Iowa’s open Senate race from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up,” while shifting Kansas’ Senate race from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”

In Iowa, it cited mixed polling, including a Marist survey showing Democrat Josh Turek eight points ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson, though it said that result was likely “too good to be true” for Democrats. It also pointed to Hinson breaking with President Donald Trump over the Iran war and emphasizing bipartisanship as signs that she was responding to a more difficult political environment.

In Kansas, the update highlighted negative coverage of Republican Senator Roger Marshall and polling showing Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton narrowly ahead. However, it said it would “still be surprised” if Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gray R. Thomas