AI to stay dominant force behind US business investment in 2027, Goldman says

Goldman Sachs on Wednesday forecast annualised spending on artificial intelligence-related hardware and intellectual property will climb to $1.4 trillion by the end of 2027, equivalent to nearly 4 percent of the US economy.

"AI will remain the dominant driver of business investment growth in 2027", the brokerage said, forecasting spending to exceed $900 billion by the end of 2026.

The outlook comes amid concerns that rising borrowing costs and increased investor scrutiny could curb AI-related capital spending, particularly as companies lean more heavily on debt-funded expansion.

Democrats' victories in the US midterm elections earlier this month have also sparked concerns over tighter regulation of data centre development. Goldman Sachs, however, said the outcome poses only limited risks to AI investment.

Goldman estimates AI-related investment will directly boost 2027 capital expenditure growth, including semiconductor investment by 5.3 percentage points and US GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points.

"Semiconductor investment is undercounted in the business investment statistics, and most information processing equipment is imported and is thus netted out of GDP," Goldman said.

Excluding semiconductor investment, AI-driven spending will boost 2027 capital expenditure growth by 4.3 percentage points and US GDP growth by only 0.2 percentage points, the brokerage said.

Overall, Goldman forecasts US business investment growth at 8 percent on a quarterly basis in 2027, nearly double the consensus forecast of 4.2 percent.

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