Amazon drought cuts grain shipments through Northern Arc ports - Valor International
Drought and El Niño-driven high temperatures are already affecting agricultural commodity transport along the waterways leading to Brazil’s Northern Arc ports. Water levels in the Madeira and Tapajós rivers have fallen, reducing cargo volumes. Lower demand for trucks carrying grain to the region’s waterways has also pushed down road freight rates.
Characterized by abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean, El Niño left its mark on the Amazon the last time it was active, causing severe drought between 2023 and 2024. “This year is better than 2023, much better than 2024, but worse than 2025,” summarized Edeon Vaz, executive director of the Agency for Sustainable Development of Waterways and Export Corridors (Adecon).
According to Vaz, cargo transportation on the Madeira River fell to 70% of capacity in mid-October before recovering to 100%. The Tapajós was hit hardest. “The river level has stopped falling, but operations are running at 60% of cargo capacity,” he said.
Caramuru Alimentos, a longtime producer of soybean meal and other soy products, had to adjust its concentrated soy protein shipping operations because of lower river levels in northern Brazil. The company exports the product through a terminal in Itaituba, Pará, where barges travel along the Tapajós River and then the Amazon River to the port of Santana, Amapá. From there, the cargo continues to Brake, Germany.
Caramuru CEO Marcus Thieme said the company had to reduce the volume carried by each barge because lower river levels limited vessel draft, while deploying more barges to ensure on-time deliveries. “We did not halt operations because of the draft restrictions. Contracted volumes are being delivered in larger convoys with lighter barge loads,” Thieme told Valor. He added that rainfall in the region is currently helping keep navigable depths stable.
The situation has also affected road freight prices to the region, which fell amid weaker demand. Grain freight on the route from Sinop, Mato Grosso, to Miritituba, Pará, which provides access to the port of Itaituba, cost R$255.87 per tonne in October.
The rate was R$260.16 in September and reached R$307.63 per tonne in June, at the peak of grain shipments through northern Brazil, according to data from the Freight Information System (Sifreca), maintained by the Esalq-Log Agroindustrial Logistics Research and Extension Group.
“This resulted from lower export volumes along the corridor during the off-season, as well as El Niño, which has affected the navigable depth of the Tapajós River and forced barges to operate with smaller loads,” said Fernando Bastiani, a researcher at Esalq-Log.
He noted that freight between Sinop and Miritituba was lower in October 2025, at R$237.51 per tonne. However, the year-over-year comparison reflects different underlying conditions. “The rate is slightly higher this year because of cost pressures, particularly diesel, which is more expensive than last year.”
Argus analyst João Petrini believes November “will be a key month” for measuring El Niño’s effects on cargo transportation through the Northern Arc.
In its latest bulletin, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated an 83% chance that El Niño would exceed the intensity of every previous event between October and December since records began in 1950.
The Northern Arc has become one of Brazil’s leading grain export routes. Between January and September 2026, 10.06 million tonnes of corn were shipped through the corridor, representing 51.22% of Brazil’s total exports, according to federal government data. Soybean shipments reached approximately 38.7 million tonnes, or 38.66% of the total.
The Association of Port Terminals and Cargo Transshipment Stations of the Amazon Basin (Amport) had no comment by the time this article went to press on navigability conditions in the Amazon Basin. Cargo handled by Northern Arc ports reached 163.3 million tonnes in 2025.
(Cleyton Vilarino contributed reporting from São Paulo.)
