Ashley Hinson Dismisses Iowa Poll After Trump Unveils $15B Steel Project - Newsweek

U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson said she is confident in her chances at winning the election for Iowa's open Senate seat despite a recent poll that showed her eight points behind Josh Turek, her Democratic opponent.

She made the comments on Tuesday in an interview with Fox News, one day after President Donald Trump unveiled a $15 billion steel mill project in Iowa on Monday. The mill will be the largest steel plant in American history and is going to be built by Minnesota mining and metals company Mesabi ​Metallics.

It could also give Hinson a boost just before the midterm elections on November 3. Last week, Turek was shown holding the eight-point lead over Hinson in a Marist Poll.

When Hinson was asked during the Fox News interview on Tuesday if she thought she could close the gap, she said: "I don't buy that for a minute. If there's one thing I do as a candidate, I run every race like I'm 10 points down. I think we are all familiar with last election cycle—the famous Selzer poll in Iowa. I think Iowans are a little wary of polls for sure and certainly pollsters and I think they are going to show up in droves because they know what's at stake."

She went on to say: "I think we'll win on November 3rd."

Newsweek reached out to Hinson's campaign by email for comment on Tuesday.

Several recent polls show that Turek has a fair shot at defeating Hinson in the midterm elections this year. The last time Democrats won an Iowa Senate election was 18 years ago, when incumbent Senator Tom Harkin beat his Republican opponent, Christopher Reed.

In the elections since, current U.S. Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican who is not running for reelection this year, and Republican Chuck Grassley have had control of Iowa's two Senate seats.

While the Marist Poll gave Turek a generous lead over Hinson, several other polls are much closer. The Trafalgar Group, which leans conservative, conducted a poll of 1,089 likely voters in Iowa between September 16 and 18. When asking voters who they would vote for if the election was held the following day, 44 percent said Hinson while 42.1 percent said Turek. The poll has a 2.9 percent margin of error.

Hinson had a four-point lead over Turek in a co/efficient poll of 831 likely voters in Iowa between September 14 and 16. The two candidates tied in a poll of 500 likely general election voters between September 9 and 11 by Cygnal.

Turek had a five-point lead over Hinson in a Rasmussen Reports poll of 1,031 Iowans between September 8 and 10.

Trump announced the project on Monday. Once complete, the mill will eventually produce up to 10 million tons of steel per year.

"The project will create 1,750 permanent Iowa jobs, support up to 6,000 construction jobs, and is projected to add $95 billion to the U.S. economy over the next decade," a White House press release about the announcement said.

Trump’s plant will be the first mega-steel plant built in the U.S. since the 1960s, a White House official told Newsweek.

Despite the boost the steel mill could give Hinson at the polls, Turek viewed the project positively, according to a social post sent to Newsweek by his campaign when asked for comment.

"Iowans are hurting, and uniquely so. We're one of three states seeing our economy contract. We've got a health care crisis, a cancer crisis, and a water quality crisis," Turek wrote on X on Monday. "And thanks to a war Ashley Hinson has voted 7 times to continue, Iowans are suffering from sky-high costs for diesel, gas, and essentials. I look forward to seeing the details on the planned steel mill in southeast Iowa. We need jobs more than ever. And we need a senator who is laser-focused on delivering for working people."

"We are thrilled the largest steel plant in U.S. history is coming to Iowa," she posted on X on Monday. "Read the Iowa delegation’s full statement on the $15 billion investment that will generate over 1,700 Iowa jobs!"

In a separate post, Hinson said, "This will be a game-changing investment for our state — creating 1,700 jobs & incredible opportunities for growth."

Bipartisan support was seen in other Iowa races as well, such as the gubernatorial race between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn.

“This is an amazing opportunity for the people of Iowa and our economy," Lahn campaign communications director Dan Capodilupo told Newsweek. "Thousands of new jobs for Iowans, the best steel in the world being manufactured right here in our own backyard, and a return of vibrancy to our rural community. That’s Iowa First in action.”

Sand called the project "promising," as seen in an X post the Democrat candidate made that was sent to Newsweek when asked for comment.

"This is a promising idea for Lee County and for our state given that our economy is among the worst in the nation," Sand wrote on X. "I look forward to hearing more details, particularly on what protections for Iowa taxpayers will be built into the deal, and what guarantees will exist for Iowa workers to build and work in the plant if Iowa taxpayers will be asked to chip in. I feel strongly that the next State Auditor – no matter which party they're in – should get to ensure accountability for taxpayers."

The Iowa Senate race is among the most competitive races this election cycle because it could help determine which party controls the Senate. Should Turek win, in addition to potentially flipping control of the Senate, it could indicate that Iowa voters are open to Democrat candidates after voting Republican for the past several election cycles, including for Trump the past three election cycles. A Democrat winning the Senate seat could be an early signal of shifting voter attitudes before the general election in 2028.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins