Australian-led team submits Antarctic ice-sheet projections for global sea-level estimates-Xinhua - 新华网

MELBOURNE, Nov. 12 (Xinhua) -- An international team led by Australian scientists has submitted a collection of Antarctic ice-sheet simulations to inform the next global assessment of sea-level rise by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The projections were presented to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, an international initiative that brings together ice-sheet modeling groups to assess Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise, according to a statement released Wednesday by the Australian Antarctic Division.

The team aims to quantify how different climate scenarios and ice-sheet processes shape Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise. The submission comes as governments gather for COP31, the United Nations climate change conference being held in Antalya, Türkiye, from Nov. 9 to 20.

How much Antarctica will add to sea-level rise, and how fast, is an area of increasing concern for Australia and the Pacific Island nations, the statement said.

Antarctica is one of the largest uncertainties in future sea-level projections, with ocean melting beneath floating ice shelves among the least understood processes, said team member David Gwyther of the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership at the University of Tasmania and the Australian Antarctic Division.

The floating ice shelves help hold back the grounded ice behind them. As warm ocean water melts the shelves from below, the ice behind them flows faster into the sea, the researchers said, adding that the Australian simulations are designed to show how different approaches to modeling ice-shelf melting affect projections for the entire continent.

The full results are expected to be published in 2027 ahead of the IPCC's Seventh Assessment Report. ■