Bab el-Mandeb traffic falls sharply to around 26 vessels a day - Anadolu Ajansı

Commercial shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has fallen to around 26 vessels a day in recent days, compared with a pre-Red Sea crisis average of about 70, ship-tracking data showed, raising concerns about the prolonged impact of security risks on one of the world's most important maritime corridors.

Data compiled from maritime tracking systems showed that 25 commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, with 11 entering the Red Sea and 14 exiting.

Traffic increased to 28 vessels on Wednesday, including 16 inbound and 12 outbound ships, before easing to 26 on Thursday, with 10 entering and 16 leaving.

A total of 79 vessels therefore crossed Bab el-Mandeb over the three days, producing a daily average of around 26 vessels.

Kpler data put the broader 10-day average at around 27 vessels per day.

The latest figures represent the continuation of a sharp, multistage decline in traffic through the waterway since late 2023.

World Bank Data Lab calculations based on IMF PortWatch satellite AIS data show that Bab el-Mandeb handled an average of around 71 cargo and tanker vessels per day from January 2022 to October 2023, immediately preceding the outbreak of the Gaza war.

Traffic initially increased after Oct. 7. Between Oct. 7 and Nov. 16, 2023, average daily transits climbed to over 77 vessels.

After Houthi attacks on commercial shipping began in November 2023, the number of vessels decreased. For the period from Nov. 17, 2023, to Feb. 19, 2024, the daily average dropped to 43 vessels, about 39% below the pre-crisis reference level.

World Bank analysis shows that the physical diversion of ships away from the Red Sea became clearly visible in early to mid-December 2023 and intensified in the following months as major shipping companies began rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

By March 2024, traffic through Bab el-Mandeb had roughly halved compared with pre-crisis levels, while research by the International Institute for Strategic Studies found that transits between February and October 2024 remained around 60% below pre-crisis levels.

The lower traffic environment subsequently became persistent rather than temporary.

IMF PortWatch-derived data show daily traffic averaging roughly 33.5 vessels during 2025, less than half the 71-vessel pre-crisis reference level.

Traffic remained broadly within the mid-30s during the first half of 2026, with average daily transits at 34 in January, 37 in February, 36 in March and 37 in April.

The average stood at 36 vessels per day in May and 37 in June, before declining to 34 in July and 28 in August.

The July-August decline marked a second important deterioration in the route.

On July 20, the Houthis announced a naval blockade targeting Saudi Arabian port traffic and warned that vessels calling at Saudi terminals could be targeted.

Kpler said commodity-related Bab el-Mandeb transits had averaged 34 vessels per day before the latest Saudi-Houthi escalation, but the seven-day moving average fell to 24 per day by July 29.

The monthly PortWatch data show the impact extending into August, when average daily traffic fell to 28 vessels, the lowest monthly level in the recent series.

The latest Kpler figures suggest traffic has remained around those depressed levels in September.

The 25, 28 and 26 vessels recorded from Tuesday through Thursday produced an average of just over 26 per day, while the 10-day average stood at about 27.

AIS-based figures may also underestimate actual movements because some vessels transit with their transponders switched off to reduce their visibility amid heightened security risks.

Conditions at the Strait of Hormuz are considerably more severe.

Only seven commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Thursday, down from 11 a day earlier and well below the 10-day average of 15 vessels, according to Kpler data.

Before the Iran war began on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled around 125 large commercial vessels per day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers and container ships.

The contrast has increased the strategic importance of Bab el-Mandeb as Gulf producers seek alternative export routes through Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast.

However, the latest Houthi advance along Yemen's western coast has added another layer of risk.

Houthi fighters seized the strategic Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the city of Dhubab in western Taiz province on Friday, a Yemeni government military source told Anadolu.