Bheem + MIM: Why UP's third front could sting SP, Congress, not BJP
Launched just months ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the alliance between Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM and Chandrashekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party (Kanshiram) claims it will stop the BJP from returning to power for a third consecutive term in the state.
But political analysts and electoral arithmetic suggest the Muslim-Dalit or the Bheem-MIM front could end up hurting the Opposition INDIA bloc more than the BJP-led NDA.
The alliance, named the Samajik Parivartan Morcha, banks on the support of Muslims and Jatav Dalits, two communities that helped Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and form around 40% of the UP's electorate. It could eat into the traditional vote bank of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress.
Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari tells India Today Digital that he estimates that the new front could secure around 5% of the votes, potentially altering results in several closely contested constituencies in western and eastern parts of UP.
In the 2022 Assembly elections, the AIMIM contested 95 constituencies but failed to win any seats, securing around 0.49% of the votes. Azad's party also failed to open its account, polling around 0.13% of the vote share.Moreover, Akhilesh Yadav is already facing attacks over his proposed Ram Temple visit, with the BJP seeking to corner him further over the SP's past stance on the Ram Janmabhoomi movement.
AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi and Azad Samaj Party (Kanshiram) president Chandrashekhar Azad announced the formation of the Samajik Parivartan Morcha in Lucknow on Thursday (November 12), naming the Nagina Lok Sabha MP as its chief ministerial candidate for the 2027 Assembly elections.
Owaisi had repeatedly reached out to the SP for an alliance, but his proposals were turned down by its chief, Akhilesh Yadav. With the SP unwilling to accommodate AIMIM, Owaisi eventually joined hands with Chandrashekhar Azad, who is loooking to expand his electoral footprint in UP.
"I can say with confidence this will be a strong alternative in UP to stop the BJP from coming to power for the third time," Owaisi said at the joint press conference on Thursday.
Azad rejected the description of their alliance as a third front. "It is not a third front. It is the Samajik Parivartan Morcha. If you understand its depth, you will realise that it is the first front," he said.
However, the numbers from the 2024 general election and the political constituency of at least 40% voter base that Owaisi and Azad seek to attract raise a different and troubling question for the INDIA bloc β the SP and the Congress. Could the MIM-Bheem alliance weaken the Opposition coalition that came closest to challenging the BJP's dominance in UP?
Congress leader Vijay Thottathil acknowledged the threat posed by the Owaisi-Azad alliance in a post on X. Calling the Samajik Parivartan Morcha "not a third front but rather a disaster front", Thottathil alleged that "Owaisi has been always a B team of BJP who splits the minority votes" and claimed that Azad had also been drawn into the arrangement. He warned, "This will only hurt UP as it will help the BJP to win the elections by splitting the secular votes."WHY INDIA BLOC COULD FEEL THE HEAT OF OWAISI-AZAD ALLIANCE
Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari, the founder of Vote Vibe, tells India Today Digital that the AIMIM-ASP (K) alliance could damage the electoral prospects of the SP and the Congress, while also eating into Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) vote base.
According to Tiwari, Owaisi's emphasis on "Muslim representation and political assertion could appeal to younger Muslim voters dissatisfied with the leadership opportunities offered by the SP and the Congress".
Tiwari says the so-called secular parties have failed to give Muslims adequate political representation, despite the community accounting for nearly 20% of Uttar Pradesh's population. He adds that these parties are reluctant to even promise a Muslim leader the deputy chief minister's post.
Owaisi has been highlighting the political under-representation of Muslims in his rallies in UP. He has been alleging that the Congress and the SP have only exploited the community as a vote bank without doing much in empowering it.
Tiwari recalls that the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan had ignored the Muslim community and declared Vikassheel Insaan Party chief Mukesh Sahani its deputy chief ministerial candidate ahead of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, despite the Mallah community accounting for just around 2.7% of the state's population.
Muslims in Bihar form 18% of the population. The RJD failed to dislodge the NDA from power in 2025, and saw its tally go down by 25 seats compared to the previous election. The Owaisi-led AIMIM maintained its tally, winning five seats of the 25 it contested.
Tiwari argues that the SP and the Congress had contributed to this dissatisfaction by failing to provide political representation proportionate to the support they sought.
He also cites "Owaisi's image as an articulate and assertive leader and the perception among Muslim voters that AIMIM MLAs would be less likely to join hands with the BJP."
The concern for the INDIA bloc, according to Tiwari, is particularly significant in constituencies where it fields non-Muslim candidates and AIMIM offers a Muslim alternative. There, he says, Muslim voters would be likely to vote for a candidate from their own community who wouldn't join the BJP-led NDA.THE FIVE PER CENT VOTE-SHARE QUESTION
The result numbers of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections explain why the Owaisi-Azad alliance could pose a challenge to the INDIA bloc in the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, when voters will elect representatives to the 403-member House.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the SP secured 33.59% of the votes in UP and won 37 of the state's 80 seats. Its ally, the Congress, secured 9.46% of the votes and won six seats. The INDIA bloc's success was driven by a consolidation of Muslim and Dalit votes, with 92% of Muslims, 56% of non-Jatav Dalits and 25% of Jatav Dalits backing the alliance, according to the CSDS-Lokniti 2024 post-poll survey.
The BJP won 33 seats with a 41.37% vote share, while Mayawati's BSP secured 9.39% of the votes without winning a single seat.
Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari estimates that nearly two-thirds of the BSP's support in 2024 came from Jatav Dalits, the community to which Chandrashekhar Azad belongs. Although Azad's party secured less than a percent of the statewide vote share in 2024, he managed to win the Nagina Lok Sabha constituency. Tiwari argues that Azad's appeal among Jatavs and younger voters could help him draw support (at least 2%) away from the BSP, particularly in western UP.
On the other hand, Owaisi is seeking to consolidate support among Muslims, who account for nearly 20% of the state's population.
"Azad could attract around 2% of the statewide vote share from the Jatavs. Owaisi, meanwhile, could secure a similar share by appealing to a section of Muslim voters. Together, the alliance could secure between 3% and 7% of the votes, with 5% being a reasonable working estimate," Tiwari tells India Today Digital.
Even a small shift in votes could matter in constituencies where the NDA and INDIA bloc candidates are locked in close contests.
This is significant for Akhilesh Yadav because the SP's success in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections rested on bringing together Yadavs, Muslims, sections of non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits under its PDA formula, which originally stood for Pichhda, Dalit and Alpsankhyak. Since then, in an attempt to widen the SP's appeal, Akhilesh has been giving the PDA different meanings, changing what the letters stand for depending on the occasion and the political message he wants to convey.
The latest interpretation of the PDA is "Pehle Darshan, Phir Aashirwad" (first darshan, then blessings), even as the BJP seeks to corner Akhilesh over his proposed visit to the Ram Temple in Ayodhya and the Samajwadi Party's past stance on the Ram Janmabhoomi movement.
In the 2024 election, the shift in Dalit support was also visible in Scheduled Caste-reserved constituencies. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 15 of Uttar Pradesh's 17 SC-reserved seats. Five years later, the SP won seven, the Congress one and the BJP got eight. Chandrashekhar Azad won the remaining Nagina seat.
Now, the Owaisi-Azad alliance is seeking support from two communities that contributed to the INDIA bloc's 2024 performance. Any erosion of the bloc's support for the INDIA bloc could complicate Akhilesh's efforts to hold together his PDA coalition.
The distribution of these voters adds another dimension to the challenge. According to Tiwari, more than 40 Assembly constituencies in UP have Scheduled Caste populations exceeding 20%, while over 90 have Muslim populations above 20%.
He identifies western Uttar Pradesh, barring the Braj region, as a key battleground because of its substantial Jatav population and several Muslim-dominated constituencies in Rohilkhand and the Upper and Lower Doab (land between the Ganga and Yamuna rivers). Purvanchal, or eastern Uttar Pradesh, is another region where Tiwari believes the new alliance could make its presence felt.
Western UP also presents a challenge for the INDIA bloc because the BJP-led NDA has strengthened its social coalition through its alliance with Jayant Chaudhary's Rashtriya Lok Dal, which enjoys support among sections of Jat voters.
In such a contest, the emergence of a separate Muslim-Dalit front could change the electoral arithmetic, particularly if the SP-Congress alliance struggles to retain the support it consolidated in 2024.
Author and executive coach, Randeep Sisodia said in a post on X that the Owaisi-Azad alliance "will have a negative impact on Akhilesh Yadav".
He argued that Owaisi was already "drawing big Muslim crowds in UP" and that his alliance with Azad would make Muslim voters see him as "a more formidable and hence votable force". Sisodia predicted that the alliance would "certainly dent Akhilesh's" Muslim vote bank, besides potentially winning "an odd seat or two."OWAISI'S ABDUL PITCH, AZAD'S DALIT ASSERTION
The non-NDA, non-INDIA alliance is also seeking to fill a political space that its leaders believe the established Opposition blocs have left open.
Owaisi has repeatedly accused parties such as the SP and Congress of seeking Muslim votes without giving the community adequate political leadership. His metaphorical Abdul, who Owaisi said used to lay carpets for the SP and the Congress leaders, would become an MLA in UP.
His party had earlier sought an understanding with the INDIA bloc. Owaisi gave the SP and the Congress an October 2 deadline to respond, but the proposed arrangement did not materialise. The AIMIM subsequently explored other options, including the BSP, before joining hands with Azad.
However, both the parties of the MIM-Bheem alliance also have an unpleasant electoral history in UP.
In the 2022 Assembly elections, the AIMIM contested 95 constituencies but failed to win any seats, securing around 0.49% of the votes. Azad's party also failed to open its account, polling around 0.13%.
Whether their combined appeal and impact can translate into a larger vote share is now uncertain. But there are indications this time. The BJP is trying to corner Akhilesh on the SP's Ram Janmabhoomi Movement baggage.AKHILESH'S RAM TEMPLE DILEMMA ADDS TO WORRY
Amid this political churn, Akhilesh Yadav's proposed visit to the Ram Temple in Ayodhya has presented the party with another dilemma. While the proposed visit looks to woo the Hindu voters, it also risks alienating Muslim voters.
On November 7, SP leader Pawan Pandey announced that Akhilesh and his wife, Dimple Yadav, would visit the Ram Temple on December 12.
The visit, if it happens, will be their first to the Ram Temple since its consecration in January 2024.
The announcement triggered attacks from the BJP, with UP CM Yogi Adityanath demanding an apology for the 1990 police firing on kar sevaks during Mulayam Singh Yadav's tenure. UP BJP chief Pankaj Chaudhary challenged Akhilesh to visit Ayodhya on December 6, the anniversary of the Babri Masjid demolition, instead.
While the SP had to later clarify that the visit on November 12 wouldn't take place, Akhilesh on Wednesday (November 11) confirmed his plans to visit Ayodhya and Vrindavan. The clubbing of the Vrindavan visit is significant too. He said that PDA meant, "Pehle Darshan, Phir Ashirwad" (first darshan, then blessings), even as the BJP accused him of using religion for electoral gains.
Tiwari says, "the move could be seen as an exercise in soft Hindutva", through which the SP chief is seeking to broaden his appeal among Hindu voters. However, Tiwari argues that it could also alienate a section of Muslim voters, giving Owaisi an opportunity to strengthen his pitch for independent Muslim political representation.
That leaves Akhilesh facing two different pressures ahead of 2027. The BJP continues to contest the election on its established political platform, while the Owaisi-Azad alliance is seeking support from voting blocs and communities central to the INDIA bloc's 2024 success.
The Samajik Parivartan Morcha says it wants to stop a third BJP government. Whether it can do so remains an open question. But Tiwari's assessment raises the possibility that even without winning many seats, the alliance could influence close contests by changing how Muslim and Dalit votes are scattered among the SP, the Congress, the BSP and the Owaisi-Azad combine.
And that is why a front formed to challenge the BJP could become an electoral headache for Akhilesh Yadav, who leads the INDIA bloc in the state.- Ends
Sushim Mukul is aΒ keen observer, with interest in polity, geopolitics, culture and heritage.
