Bitcoin price prediction: Can BTC hit $90,000 in October as oil tops $100 and Fed rate hike fears rise?

Bitcoin is entering October 2026 with a key question for investors: Can it climb to $90,000? The cryptocurrency was trading at around $83,070 as October approached. Its next move could depend on the US Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, oil prices above $100 a barrel and demand for Bitcoin investment funds.

Bitcoin price prediction for October 2026 as oil tops $100 and Fed rate hike fears grow. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung, File) (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)Bitcoin has recorded a strong rally over the past three months, but it has not fully recovered its losses. The cryptocurrency gained about 43.8% over the past 90 days, rising from around $57,800 in early July. However, it remained about 3.8% lower for 2026 and 34.1% below its record high of $126,080, reached on October 6, 2025, according to 24/7 Wall St.

Bitcoin's third-quarter performance surprised many cryptocurrency watchers. The digital asset gained around 43% in the third quarter, recording its strongest quarterly performance since 2024. It also outperformed gold and other assets despite rising US Treasury yields and higher commodity prices.

Citigroup has raised its Bitcoin price forecast, pointing to renewed investor interest. Citi analyst Alex Saunders raised the bank's base-case price target for Bitcoin to $113,000 from $82,000 on Thursday. The revised forecast reflects changes in market activity, the broader economic outlook and flows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Saunders said, according to Yahoo Finance.

Citi expects more money to flow into Bitcoin ETFs over the next year. Saunders said the bank now expects $5 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs over the next 12 months, compared with its earlier assumption of no net inflows. He linked the change to improving investor sentiment and renewed ETF demand after Bitcoin moved above its 200-day moving average.

Concerns about falling currency value and developments in US crypto rules have also supported Bitcoin. Investors worried about the purchasing power of traditional currencies have shown interest in digital assets. Saunders also pointed to developments around US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rulemaking as factors supporting Bitcoin's recovery.

The failure of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has added uncertainty to US crypto regulation. The bill failed to advance in a Senate procedural vote in September because it did not secure the required 60 votes. Senate Democrats raised concerns about government ethics provisions and potential conflicts of interest involving the president, while some Republican lawmakers also opposed its progress, according to Yahoo Finance.

Disagreements over stablecoin rewards contributed to the bill's difficulties. Community banks lobbied against provisions related to rewards on stablecoins, adding to the challenges facing the legislation. Despite the setback, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor described the rejection of the CLARITY Act as a positive turning point for digital assets.

The Federal Reserve's October meeting could influence Bitcoin's direction. The US central bank is scheduled to meet on October 27–28. According to 24/7 Wall St., the market is watching the meeting closely because interest-rate decisions can affect demand for riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate in September. The Fed increased its benchmark rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, marking its first rate increase since 2023. The decision was unanimous, the report said.

Markets are preparing for the possibility of another rate hike in October. According to CME FedWatch data cited by 24/7 Wall St., traders were pricing in a 64% probability of another quarter-percentage-point increase. This probability reflects market expectations at the time of the report, not a confirmed Fed decision.

Higher interest rates could make Bitcoin less attractive to some investors. Bitcoin does not pay interest or dividends, unlike certain income-generating investments. When interest rates rise, investors may find government bonds more attractive because they can offer regular returns without the same price volatility associated with cryptocurrencies, according to the analysis by 24/7 Wall St.

Rising US Treasury yields are adding to the pressure on Bitcoin. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note stood at 5.17% on September 25. Higher yields could encourage some investors to put money into government bonds instead of Bitcoin.

A pause in rate increases could support Bitcoin's recovery. If the Fed decides not to raise rates again, despite market expectations of a hike, investors could respond positively. However, the impact would depend on the Fed's decision and its explanation of the economic outlook.

Oil prices above $100 a barrel are another risk for Bitcoin in October. Brent crude prices climbed above $100 after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to 24/7 Wall St. The situation has raised concerns about oil supplies and the possibility of higher energy costs.

Expensive oil could make it harder for the Fed to bring inflation under control. Higher crude prices can increase fuel, transport and production costs, potentially pushing prices up across the economy. If inflation remains elevated, the Fed could have more reason to maintain high interest rates or raise them further, creating another challenge for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed, raising questions about the strength of investor demand. US spot Bitcoin ETFs held about $108.4 billion in assets, according to 24/7 Wall St. However, daily inflows fell from nearly $1 billion on September 21 to $134 million on September 25. Money was still entering the funds, but at a slower pace.

A return of strong ETF inflows could help Bitcoin move higher. Increased investment through spot Bitcoin ETFs can create additional demand for the cryptocurrency. Citi's revised forecast of $5 billion in net inflows over 12 months reflects its expectation of continued investment, although the actual amount will depend on market conditions, according to Yahoo Finance.

Bitcoin needs to cross $87,397 to strengthen the case for a move towards $90,000. This was the high recorded on September 21. A move above that level could open the way towards the psychologically important $90,000 mark. From a price of around $83,070, reaching $90,000 would represent a gain of approximately 8.3%.

Bitcoin could also fall if selling pressure increases. The cryptocurrency was trading near the September 23 low of $83,513, according to 24/7 Wall St. The report identified $80,875, the September 18 closing price, as a level to watch if prices decline further.

The $75,585 level is another important price point for October. This was Bitcoin's closing price on September 15. A fall towards this level would represent a significant retreat from prices around $83,000 and could indicate that the recent recovery has weakened.

Bitcoin's October performance will depend on several factors rather than one price forecast. A pause in Fed rate hikes, stronger ETF inflows and a break above $87,397 could support a move towards $90,000. In contrast, another rate increase, oil prices remaining above $100 and weaker ETF demand could put downward pressure on the cryptocurrency, according to 24/7 Wall St.

The $90,000 target remains a possibility, not a guaranteed outcome. Citi's $113,000 forecast reflects the bank analyst's base-case outlook over a different forecast horizon; it does not establish that Bitcoin will reach that price in October. For the month ahead, investors will be watching the Fed's October 27–28 meeting, developments in oil markets and changes in Bitcoin ETF flows to assess whether the cryptocurrency can sustain its rally.

Durva More is a Senior Content Producer at Hindustan Times, where she covers finance, and global news. She brings experience across digital and television journalism, with a strong focus on breaking news, business reporting, and international affairs. Before joining Hindustan Times, Durva worked as an International News Writer at The Economic Times, covering a diverse range of subjects including global politics, business, sports, entertainment, and major world events. She also worked as a Business Reporter with NDTV Profit. A postgraduate diploma holder in Journalism from the Asian College of Journalism, Durva is passionate about field reporting and storytelling. She thrives on the adrenaline of chasing stories, speaking with people from different walks of life, and amplifying voices that deserve to be heard. Her reporting is driven by curiosity, accuracy, and a commitment to making complex subjects accessible to readers. When she is not chasing stories or covering breaking news, Durva enjoys reading books and painting. She loves exploring new ideas, meeting people, and learning about different perspectives. For her, both journalism and art are ways to understand the world and tell stories that matter.Read More