Brazil heads to runoff as Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro on October 25
Brazil will hold a presidential runoff on October 25 after neither President Luiz Incio Lula da Silva nor Senator Flvio Bolsonaro was set to secure the more than 50 per cent vote needed for a first-round victory, the country’s electoral court in Brasilia said on Sunday.
The runoff will pit the 80-year-old incumbent, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, against the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The next presidential term will begin on January 5, 2027.
Earlier on Sunday, Brazilians voted in a high-stakes election that set Lula against Flvio Bolsonaro at a time when parts of Latin America have been shifting to the right in line with the Trump administration. Bolsonaro is an ally of US President Donald Trump, while Lula has strengthened Brazil’s ties with Beijing. Trump allies have done well in recent elections in Argentina, Colombia, Honduras and Peru.
Brazil’s nearly 159 million eligible voters were also choosing 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 federal members of the lower house of Congress and 54 of the country’s 81 senators. Polls closed at 5 pm on Sunday, with those still in line allowed to vote, and the count was expected within hours.
Lula, one of the world’s oldest heads of state, is running in his seventh presidential election. Although his approval ratings fell sharply during his third term, standing up to the US has given him a boost, and he retains a strong base that credits his social policies with improving the lives of millions of Brazilians. He has often spoken about what he says are risks of US intervention in Brazil’s election after the Trump administration imposed high tariffs on Brazilian exports, revoked the visa of the country’s ambassador and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice who led the investigation that eventually resulted in Jair Bolsonaro being sentenced.
After voting on Sunday, Lula told journalists that he needs “to do double of what we have done” if re-elected and said he was confident of a first-round win. But he faces a difficult contest because of an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal involving the same justice who led the investigation into Bolsonaro. Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, said, “Many in the Lula campaign were not expecting such a difficult election a few weeks ago, and it is clear to them that the present election is a tough battle and the next ones, without Lula, could be even more so.”
Flvio Bolsonaro has highlighted his closeness to the White House, though he has denied that his campaign received help from the US government. He has promised a crackdown on Brazilian criminal groups and said Brazil needs better deals with the Trump administration, including in the rare minerals economy, where Brazil is second only to China. He has also campaigned on freeing his father and bringing him back to politics. After casting his vote in Rio de Janeiro, he told reporters, “Brazil needs change. Brazil can’t stand so much suffering.”
The senator also faces challenges of his own. His political career has been hit by several corruption allegations, including accusations that he received millions of dollars from a disgraced banker to allegedly produce a film on his father’s life.
Among voters, Rosane Wink, a 67-year-old retired engineer and a lifelong conservative, backed Bolsonaro and his pledge to classify criminal groups as terrorist organisations. “It’s a kind of terrorism that they’re doing with us,” she said in Rio de Janeiro, adding that last month a criminal held a gun to her stomach, bit her hand and took her wedding ring. Maria Ribeiro, a 50-year-old mobile phone vendor from Brasilia, said she voted for Bolsonaro because she wanted freedom to express her Evangelical religion. “I voted for his father, and I don’t regret it,” she said. Rosngela Resende da Rocha, 69, who was previously a stay-at-home mother, said she supported Lula’s social policies that help the “less fortunate” and the way he stands up to Trump.
The first round has now set up a direct runoff between Lula and Flvio Bolsonaro on October 25, after a contest shaped by economic strain, questions over corruption, public security concerns and sharply different views on Brazil’s ties with the US.
