Brazil's Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro remain tied in runoff scenario, Atlas poll shows

Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) attends a campaign rally in Natal, Brazil September 21, 2026. REUTERS/Alexandre Lago

SAO PAULO, Sept 23 - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied in a simulated runoff ahead of next month's election, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed on Wednesday, with the leftist incumbent now holding a narrow lead within the survey's margin of error.

• In a runoff, Lula would receive 47.7% of voter support, compared with 47.4% for the right-wing lawmaker, the poll said.

• In a September 17 poll, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro led Lula 47.2% to 46.8%.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula would receive 45.8% of voter support, followed by Bolsonaro (43.4%), Renan Santos (4.5%), Augusto Cury (2.1%) and Ronaldo Caiado (1.3%).

• The previous poll showed Lula at 44.1% and Bolsonaro at 41.7% in the first round.

• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 election, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.

• AtlasIntel surveyed 5,015 people between September 17 and 22. The poll has a margin of error of 1 percentage point. REUTERS