Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead; runoff with Bolsonaro stays tight, BTG/Nexus poll shows

FILE PHOTO: A combination image shows Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (left) at a ceremony at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, August 8, 2026, and senator Flavio Bolsonaro (right), the Liberal Party (PL) candidate in Brazil's presidential election, during an event announcing Alfredo Gaspar as Bolsonaro's vice-presidential running mate, in Brasilia, Brazil, August 5, 2026. REUTERS/Adriano Machado/File Photo

SAO PAULO, Sept 28 - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied in a simulated runoff ahead of next month's election, while the leftist incumbent widened his lead in first-round voting intentions, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday.

• In a potential runoff, Lula would receive 46% of voter support, compared with 44% for the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll said.

• Lula's narrow runoff lead remains within the survey's margin of error.

• A September 21 survey had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 46% to 45%.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula would lead with 42% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (37%), Augusto Cury (5%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%) and Renan Santos (4%).

• The previous first-round survey had Lula at 40% and Bolsonaro at 37%.

• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners will advance to a runoff on October 25.

• Nexus surveyed 2,000 people from September 25 to 27. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points. REUTERS