Chris Pappas Reverses Polling Trend in New Hampshire Senate Race - Newsweek

In the New Hampshire race for a U.S. Senate seat, Democrat Chris Pappas has reversed a recent polling trend in his battle against Republican John E. Sununu, a new survey from the University of New Hampshire shows on Thursday. U.S. Representative Pappas now leads 50 percent to Sununu's 42 percent, after the Republican was found ahead with the pollster in August.

Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is set to retire, opening the seat for November's general election. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris won New Hampshire in the 2024 presidential election over President Donald Trump by under 3 percent. The state has notably not elected a Republican senator in over 15 years. Sununu represented the Granite State in the Senate from 2003 to 2009.

Newsweek reached out to Pappas and Sununu's campaigns via email on Thursday for comment on the new poll.

According to the new poll, 50 percent would pick Pappas, 42 percent would pick Sununu, 2 percent would pick Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante, 2 percent would write in another candidate and 4 percent are undecided.

Pappas' favorability rating in the new poll is 33 percent compared to a 47 percent unfavorable rating, 17 percent are neutral and 3 percent do not know enough to say either way. Sununu's favorability rating is 34 percent versus a 49 percent unfavorable rating, while 13 percent are neutral and 4 percent don't know enough to say either way.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll was conducted from September 17 to September 21 among 1,418 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of 2.6 percent.

In an August survey from the pollster, Sununu was up 45 percent compared to 43 percent for Pappas, 5 percent would have voted for another candidate and 7 percent were undecided. The poll was conducted from August 20 to August 24 among 1,878 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of 2.3 percent. The results for this survey were within the margin of error, making it a statistical tie.

A co/efficient poll earlier this month also had the race deadlocked between the two at 46 percent, while 9 percent were undecided. Pappas' favorability was 37 percent compared to a 51 percent unfavorable rating and 13 percent had no opinion. Sununu's favorability was 41 percent compared to a 47 percent unfavorable rating and 12 percent had no opinion. The poll was conducted from September 9 to September 11 among 958 likely general election voters in the Granite State and had a margin of error of 3.15 percent.

A survey from GOP pollster Fabrizio, Lee & Associates last month showed the contest in a statistical tie with Sununu obtaining 37 percent of the potential vote compared to Pappas' 36 percent. The poll showed that 23 percent were undecided while other candidates garnered less than 4 percent. The poll was conducted from August 27 to August 30 among 600 likely voters in the state and had a 4 percent margin of error.

The new poll released on Thursday shows a flip in possible momentum for Democrats less than six weeks out from Election Day.

Earlier this month, however, Cook moved the contest from Lean Democratic to a Toss-Up amid the competitive polling. The race has also caught the eye of Republicans nationally, who are on pace to hold a $20 million edge in the state, Cook notes. "Sununu allies have already outspent pro-Pappas groups by almost a 2-1 margin," the forecaster highlighted in part.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins