Coalition likely in Philippines’ Muslim south with no clear winner in election - Daily Maverick

Coalition talks may be needed to choose the first elected chief minister of the Muslim-dominated autonomous region in the southern Philippines, with unofficial results suggesting no single bloc is on course to dominate the new 80-member parliament.

The race has largely been shaped by rival camps that emerged from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the former separatist movement that negotiated autonomy with the Philippine government.

One is led by longtime MILF chairman Al Haj Murad Ebrahim, the other by Abdulraof Macacua, a former MILF commander appointed interim chief by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in 2025.

With 98.56% of votes counted in the party-list race, the camp aligned with Macacua led with 35.2% of votes, ahead of the bloc associated with Murad with 32.4%, according to partial and unofficial results from the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting, a church-backed election watchdog.

A third party, the BARMM Grand Coalition, has 20.5% so far and could hold the balance of power in coalition negotiations.

Benedicto Bacani, executive director of the Institute for Autonomy and Governance, a policy research group focused on autonomy and governance, said neither camp appeared likely to secure the 41 seats needed for a majority, making coalition-building essential.

He said cooperation between rival MILF factions would be the best outcome for the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao because it could strengthen peace and political stability.

"The best scenario for me is the unification of the MILF," he said.

The election drew about an 80% turnout, according to election officials, with roughly 1.8 million votes cast from 2.39 million registered voters. Voters elected party, district and sectoral representatives who will make up the 80-member parliament tasked with selecting the region's first elected chief minister.

The vote is widely viewed as the most significant milestone since a 2014 peace agreement between Manila and the MILF paved the way for greater autonomy in the Muslim-majority south.

The grant of greater autonomy was intended to halt a conflict that killed more than 120,000 people, displaced about 2 million and helped extremist groups gain a foothold in the region, concerns that came into sharp focus when Islamic State-linked militants laid siege to Marawi Cityfor five months in 2017.

In one of the remote islands in the region, Tawi-Tawi, civil society leader Arlene Sevilla said she and her family made a point of voting in the landmark election, with all four of her children travelling home from Manila to cast their ballots.

"That is my right," she said. "If my vote will make a difference to the lives of the Bangsamoro, then let us do it."

The 60-year-old Sevilla said she voted because she wanted capable leaders who would improve the lives of Bangsamoro residents.

"I voted because I want BARMM to have good leaders for the benefit of the people," she said.