Cooper Flips Trump Margin with Independents 29 Points as Whatley Struggles - Newsweek

Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper held a 25-point lead among independent voters over Republican Michael Whatley in the latest North Carolina Senate race poll, a stark reversal from President Donald Trump’s 4-point win among the critical voting bloc in the 2024 election.

The North Carolina Senate race is one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 midterm elections and is a must-win for Democrats in their efforts to flip control of the Senate in November.

Cooper has established a polling edge over Whatley, who served as the chair of the Republican National Committee in the race to succeed retiring GOP Senator Thom Tillis.

The new AARP poll published on Monday showed Cooper with an 11-point overall lead and a 25-point lead among independent voters, the latest warning sign for Republicans in the Tar Heel State.

Jeff Allen, Cooper’s campaign manager, told Newsweek that North Carolina “is a 50-50 state and this will be a margin-of-error race, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them, while Michael Whatley will continue to enrich himself at their expense.”

“A Democrat has not won statewide federal office here in nearly two decades—and Whatley’s elite D.C. connections mean Republicans are going to spend whatever it takes to keep this seat,” Allen said.

Newsweek also reached out to Whatley’s campaign for comment via email.

Cooper received support from 53 percent of respondents in the poll, while 42 percent said they would vote for Whatley. Five percent said they were either planning to vote for another candidate or remained undecided about how they would cast their ballot.

Among independent voters, Cooper held a substantial lead, getting 58 percent of the vote compared with Whatley’s 33 percent. Nine percent were undecided or planned to vote for another candidate.

The Democrat’s large lead among independents is notable because that voting bloc backed Trump in the 2024 election by about four points, 51 percent to 47 percent, according to CNN exit polling data.

The voters generally viewed Cooper more favorably than Whatley and he is also better known among North Carolina voters, with 48 percent saying they view the former governor favorably and 41 percent unfavorably. Meanwhile, Whatley’s favorability stood at 31 percent, with 37 percent viewing him unfavorably, the poll found.

Among independents, Cooper had a +13 point favorability rating, while Whatley had a -20 point favorability.

The AARP poll was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research. They surveyed 1,115 likely voters from September 17 to September 20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Steven Greene, professor of political science at North Carolina State University, told Newsweek that Cooper has built a polling lead because 2026 is shaping up to be a good year for Democrats, and because Cooper is a strong candidate.

“Whatley is a neophyte when it comes to campaigning and to North Carolina politics. I would be surprised if the gap is quite this large come election day, but that's basically a formula for a pretty sizable Cooper win,” he said.

Winning over independents is “very important” for candidates in an evenly divided state like North Carolina, he added.

Cooper was able to win over these swing voters during his two gubernatorial runs, according to Greene.

“There is widespread dissatisfaction with Donald Trump's presidency and the state of the economy-- especially prices. That is a recipe for the party out of power-- in 2026 the Democrats-- to do well,” he said.

The poll also found that Trump’s approval rating is underwater with North Carolina voters.

Only 38 percent of respondents said they approve of the president’s job performance, while 59 percent said they gave him negative marks. Among independents, 26 percent approved of Trump while 71 percent disapproved of him, the poll found.

Trump’s approval rating has important implications for the race. Historically, midterms have been seen as a referendum on the sitting president. The party represented by the White House tends to lose seats in the House and Senate. Whatley is closely tied to Trump, having received the president's endorsement.

The president’s popularity has waned over recent months as voter frustration with the economy, cost of living and gas prices mounts. The economy has become a central focus of both Democratic and Republican campaigns, as voters look for leaders to mitigate rising prices.

Other recent polls have also given Cooper an advantage against Whatley.

Cooper was up 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent, in a recent survey from Quantus Insights, which surveyed 686 likely voters from September 21 to September 22. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Cooper held an 11-point lead in the latest YouGov poll, receiving 52 percent support to Whatley’s 41 percent. It surveyed 3,895 registered voters from September 15 to September 18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Meanwhile, an InsiderAdvantage poll gave Cooper a 6-point lead, 48.4 percent to 42.5 percent. It polled 1,200 likely voters from September 16 to September 17 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

Prediction markets also give Cooper a big advantage in the race.

He had a 94 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and a 96 percent chance on Polymarket as of Monday afternoon.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at any given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

North Carolina has been one of the most competitive states across recent elections, having backed Democrats in gubernatorial races but Republicans in federal races.

At the presidential level, Trump carried the state in each of his three runs, albeit by narrow margins—about 3.6 points in 2016, 1.3 points in 2020 and 3.2 points in 2024.

Republicans have also performed well in Senate races. In 2022, Democrat Cheri Beasley lost to Republican Ted Budd, then a member of the House, by about 3 points. Tillis defeated Democrat Cal Cunningham by less than 2 points in 2020. In 2016, former GOP Senator Richard Burr defeated Democrat Deborah Ross, now a member of Congress, by nearly 6 points.

The late Senator Kay Hagan was the last Democrat to win a Senate race in 2008, when former President Barack Obama also won the state.

In governor races, Cooper won reelection in 2020, and Democrat Josh Stein, who succeeded Cooper, won November's race by nearly 15 points after Republican Mark Robinson faced a series of scandals on the campaign trail.

Democrats have gained ground in suburban areas near Charlotte and Raleigh, but Republicans have done well in the rural areas that used to be more competitive.

As of September 26, there were 2,324,413 registered Democrats in North Carolina, and 2,329,597 registered Republicans. However, 3,155,445 North Carolina voters were registered as unaffiliated, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections.

The North Carolina Senate race is seen as a must-win for Democrats this year.

Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need to flip four GOP seats and retain all of their seats to flip control of the chamber.

Democrats are defending two seats in states Trump won in 2024, Georgia and Michigan, as well as a competitive seat in New Hampshire, which only narrowly backed Harris over Trump.

North Carolina is one of their top two flip targets along with Maine, which Trump lost by 7 points in 2024.

But no other Republican-held seats are up for grabs in states Trump won by single digits or lost in 2024, meaning Democrats must turn to more conservative states to win a majority. Those targets include Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, and polls do show close races in those areas. They would need to win two of those seats in addition to Maine and North Carolina to gain the majority.

A Whatley victory would complicate Democrats’ path to victory, as they would have to win an additional double-digit Trump state to clinch control of the Senate.

Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider the North Carolina race to be "Leans Democratic," meaning Cooper has an advantage, but the race is still competitive.

The two candidates have not agreed to a debate but will be making their cases to voters about why they should succeed Tillis in the Senate.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Geoffrey Rowland.