Datafolha Poll: Lula Has 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro 40% of Valid Votes in First Round - Folha de S.Paulo

The presidential race enters the final days before the first round with Lula (PT) at 45% of voting intentions among valid votes, which exclude blank and null votes and undecided voters, compared with 40% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), according to Datafolha. A week ago, they stood at 43% and 39%, respectively. They are followed by Augusto Cury (Avante) with 4%, and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Renan Santos (Missão) with 3% each. In a runoff, based on total votes, there is a statistical tie: 48% for the president and 45% for the senator. The poll, conducted from Tuesday (29) to Thursday (1), surveyed 2,506 voters in 152 municipalities and has a margin of error of two percentage points.

For 17% of voters, it is still possible to change their vote. Rejection rates are the same: 45% say they would never vote for Flávio, identical to Lula’s figure. The government is rated negatively by 41% and positively by 35%. The president is personally disapproved of by 49%, while 48% approve of him.

Two developments marked the week. The executive order banning betting, issued by Lula, targeted low-income female voters; among women, Lula rose from 42% to 45%, while Flávio rose from 33% to 35%. Meanwhile, the controversy involving Our Lady of Aparecida, sparked by fake news, benefited Lula among Catholics (rising from 45% to 50%) and Flávio among evangelical voters, among whom he leads 52% to 26%.