Debt-to-GDP ratio hits 22-year high

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines’ debt burden climbed to a fresh 22-year high of 66.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) as of end-September, raising concerns over fiscal sustainability as economic growth continued to weaken.

Latest data from the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) showed that the national government’s debt-to-GDP ratio, which measures outstanding government obligations relative to the size of the economy, rose from 66 percent in end-June and 63.2 percent at end-2025.

The latest reading was the highest since the 71.6 percent recorded in 2004, signaling mounting challenges for the government in reducing its debt burden.

The increase came as the country’s economic growth slowed to 2.1 percent in the third quarter from the revised 2.4 percent in the previous quarter, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.

John Paolo Rivera, senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said the elevated debt ratio was becoming increasingly concerning as sluggish economic expansion made it harder for the government to stabilize its obligations.

He warned that the continued increase could further constrain fiscal space, amid growing pressure from debt servicing requirements.

“There is no single debt threshold that automatically signals a fiscal crisis,” Rivera said, emphasizing that debt sustainability depends on economic growth, government revenues and borrowing costs.

BTr data showed that outstanding government debt reached a record P19.66 trillion as of end-September, up from P19.07 trillion in June and P17.71 trillion at end-2025.

Domestic obligations accounted for 67.4 percent of the total at P13.25 trillion, while external debt comprised the remaining 32.6 percent at P6.41 trillion.

Looking ahead, Rivera cautioned that the debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 70 percent by year-end, although such an outcome remains uncertain.

“Reaching 70 percent by year end is possible but not inevitable,” he said. “Much will depend on the fourth quarter growth, additional borrowing and forex rate movements.

To contain the debt burden, Rivera said policymakers should prioritize restoring economic growth, strengthening revenue collection and ensuring that public borrowings finance productive investments that improve the country’s capacity to repay its obligations.

Under the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2029 Midterm Update, the Marcos administration expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to be 60 to 63 percent this year, 59 to 62 percent in 2027 and 58 to 61 percent in 2028.

abtestabtest Philippines faces difficult mix of high inflation, sluggish growth — BSP By Alyana Uy | 13 hours ago The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is focusing on the “second-round effects” of global supply shocks and the risk... Business The power of choice By Joe Zaldarriaga | 1 day ago When I joined the power industry in 1989, the main concern was reliable supply. We went through the dark days of long blackouts... Business Avoiding a regress in ProGRESS By Bienvenido Oplas Jr. | 1 day ago Philippine GDP growth deceleration has continued from 5.7 percent in 2024 to 4.4 percent in 2025, 2.8 percent in the first... Business Alternergy lines up P26 billion RE projects By Brix Lelis | 1 day ago Alternergy Holdings Corp. is investing around P26 billion to develop 320 megawatts of renewable energy projects as it seeks... Business Foreign investments rebound 25% in August By Keisha Ta-Asan | 1 day ago Foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows into the Philippines rebounded by nearly 25 percent in August as foreign investors... Business Latest More in Business SMC to make bid for Semirara coal Tricycle operator’s daughter tasked to steer Grab Philippines MVP proposes telcos mergers, says 4 players in Philippines ‘too many’ Share prices tumble anew on lack of fresh leads abtest Malampaya gas deliveries hit highest mark in 5 years By Brix Lelis | 40 minutes ago Indigenous natural gas deliveries from the Malampaya field offshore Palawan have climbed to a five-year high following the... Business GT Capital earns P23 billion in 9 months By Richmond Mercurio | 40 minutes ago GT Capital Holdings Inc., the listed conglomerate of the Ty family, saw its profit drop in the first nine months amid a broader slowdown in the country’s economic growth, driven by domestic and global unc... Business ACEN shifts RE strategy, reshuffles leadership By Brix Lelis | 40 minutes ago ACEN Corp. of the Zobel family has relinquished nearly five gigawatts of renewable energy service contracts as it shifts its focus to project execution, appointing its COO Roman Miguel de Jesus to lead its Philippine... Business Airlines need government relief By Marianne Go | 40 minutes ago The Philippine government needs to extend some form of financial relief to local airlines to help them ride out the current... Business BSP weighs weak growth as inflation stays elevated By Keisha Ta-Asan | 40 minutes ago The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas  signaled that it would factor in the sharp slowdown in economic growth when setting... Business Recommended If VP quits, will impeach trial continue? 1 day ago It would be up to the Senate impeachment court to decide whether to continue with the trial of Vice President Sara Duterte,... BusinessIMPEACHVP Witness: VP got P2.14 million ‘return of capital’ from GenCorp November 12, 2026 - 12:00am Vice President Sara Duterte received a total of P2.14 million as “return of capital” from 2022 to 2025 from GenCorp Industries Inc., a corporation tied to her and her husband, its legal counsel said at...r BusinessSARA DUTERTE Defense: Sara did not get double pay 1 day ago After presenting the Davao City accountant as witness before the Senate impeachment court, Vice President Sara Duterte’s... BusinessSARA DUTERTE Democrats won the midterms; that won’t change much for American allies November 12, 2026 - 12:00am Shortly after the Democratic Party won back the House and Senate in the US midterm elections, House Democratic Leader (and likely the next Speaker of the House) Hakeem Jeffries announced, “America is back...r BusinessCHINADEMOCRATIC PARTY Sara Duterte received ‘return of capital’ of 2.14 million from GenCorp. — witness 1 day ago Vice President Sara Duterte has received a “return of capital” from a corporation tied to her, according to the... BusinessCORRUPTIONDAVAO CITYIMPEACHMENT next Recommended If VP quits, will impeach trial continue? It would be up to the Senate impeachment court to decide whether to continue with the trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, in case she opts to resign to avoid the penalty of perpetual disqualification from public office in case of conviction, a former law dean said. 1 day ago IMPEACH VP Witness: VP got P2.14 million ‘return of capital’ from GenCorp Vice President Sara Duterte received a total of P2.14 million as “return of capital” from 2022 to 2025 from GenCorp Industries Inc., a corporation tied to her and her husband, its legal counsel said at the resumption of her impeachment trial yesterday. 1 day ago SARA DUTERTE Defense: Sara did not get double pay After presenting the Davao City accountant as witness before the Senate impeachment court, Vice President Sara Duterte’s defense team believes that it was able to disprove that she received double compensation in 2023.  1 day ago SARA DUTERTE Democrats won the midterms; that won’t change much for American allies Shortly after the Democratic Party won back the House and Senate in the US midterm elections, House Democratic Leader (and likely the next Speaker of the House) Hakeem Jeffries announced, “America is back.” 1 day ago CHINA DEMOCRATIC PARTY Sara Duterte received ‘return of capital’ of 2.14 million from GenCorp. — witness Vice President Sara Duterte has received a “return of capital” from a corporation tied to her, according to the fourth witness of the defense panel. 1 day ago CORRUPTION DAVAO CITY IMPEACHMENT OK Are you sure you want to log out? Yes No X Login Philstar.com is one of the most vibrant, opinionated, discerning communities of readers on cyberspace. With your meaningful insights, help shape the stories that can shape the country. Sign up now!