Democrat Rob Sand Double Digits Ahead in State Trump Won Three Times: Poll - Newsweek

Democrat Rob Sand led Republican Zach Lahn by 10 points among likely voters in a new poll of the governor’s race in Iowa, a state President Donald Trump won in each of his three presidential bids.

Although Iowa has shifted rightward over the past decade, Democrats are hopeful about their prospects in the Hawkeye State this November. Sand, the current state auditor, has built a steady polling lead over Lahn, a businessman, and forecasters have shifted the race toward Democrats in the past few weeks.

Iowa backed President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but it voted for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024, giving him a 13-point victory in 2024, a sign that the once-purple state could be drifting away from competitive territory.

Sand’s candidacy will gauge whether Democrats can make a comeback in the state, particularly among the white, working-class voters who voted for Obama before casting their ballots for Trump.

The new poll showed Sand up by 10 percentage points among likely voters, 51 percent to 41 percent. But he led by 11 points among all registered voters, 50 percent to 39 percent.

His lead in the poll was bolstered by his ability to win over some voters who cast their ballots for Trump in 2024 while also holding together the Democratic Party. He won 97 percent of Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 voters, with only 1 percent of them backing Lahn.

Among Trump voters, however, Sand won 12 percent to Lahn’s 73 percent. This suggests that some Trump voters are breaking Republican ranks to support the Democratic candidate.

Harris voters also said they were more motivated to vote—94 percent said they would definitely vote, compared to 90 percent of Trump voters.

The poll also found that the president is broadly unpopular in Iowa despite his past victories. Forty-one percent of Iowa respondents said they approved of Trump, compared to 57 percent who said they disapproved of him, the poll found.

It surveyed 2,169 registered voters, 2,043 of whom were classified as “strict” likely voters, from September 3-8. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent among registered voters and the likely voter subset.

The poll’s sample included 38 percent of respondents who have at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to 31 percent of Iowans overall with at least a bachelor’s degree, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

A Lahn spokesperson told Newsweek on Friday that the poll is “not a reliable source.”

“Rob has spent over $7 million to go backwards in the polls. Iowans are realizing he’s a radical liberal who supports amnesty and government benefits for illegal aliens, no limits on abortion, AOC’s green new deal, and wants to raise taxes on Iowa families by $7,500 per year,” the spokesperson said.

Newsweek also reached out to the Sand campaign for comment via email.

Several other recent polls have shown Sand with a lead.

A recent poll from Emerson College showed him with a 3-point lead, 49 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 750 likely voters from August 31-September 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Sand also led the latest poll from Suffolk University, 48 percent to 44 percent, which polled 500 likely voters from August 20-23. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Sand’s lead was tighter in a poll by The New York Times and Siena University, which showed him up only about a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent. It polled 600 likely voters from June 15-27.

In a Fox News poll, Sand led by 9 points, 53 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 1,003 registered voters from June 23-27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Sand is up in prediction markets, as well, having a 78 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and a 77 percent chance on Polymarket as of Friday afternoon.

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.

Iowa was once a battleground that voted for politicians of both major parties but has steadily become a Republican stronghold in the Trump era.

Obama won the state by about 10 points in 2008 and 6 points in 2012. But Trump performed well in the state, winning by 10 points in 2016, 8 points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024.

Democrats have lost ground across the Midwest, as white working-class voters have shifted to Trump and Republicans. Any Democrat hoping to win Iowa must perform better among those voters.

However, Democrats believe they may be able to make inroads with some voters in the midterms as Trump’s national approval rating falls due to economic concerns around the cost of living and inflation, as well as the unpopular war in Iran that has sent gas prices surging. Trump’s tariffs could also become a major issue in Iowa, home to many farmers who could be impacted by the policies.

In addition to the gubernatorial race, Democrats are also hoping to compete in the U.S. Senate race, where GOP Senator Joni Ernst has opted to not run for reelection. Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek are running to succeed Ernst.

Three of Iowa’s four congressional districts are viewed as competitive in the midterms as Democrats hope to reclaim a majority in the House. In Iowa’s First District, GOP Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a rematch against Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state representative who nearly unseated the Republican in 2024.

In Iowa’s Second District, vacated by Hinson, Republican former state Representative Joe Mitchell and Democratic state Representative Lindsay James are running. In Iowa’s Third District, Representative Zach Nunn, a Republican, faces a challenge from Democratic state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott.

Sand has sought to cast himself as an independent voice, breaking from the national party on some cultural issues.

The strategy may be necessary in Iowa, where only 31 percent of respondents in the YouGov poll reported favorable views of Democrats, while 57 percent said they viewed the party unfavorably.

The GOP was less unpopular, with 39 percent viewing the party favorably, though 53 percent still said they viewed the Republican Party unfavorably.

Sand has broken with some of the more left-leaning members of his party on the issue of transgender athletes’ participation in women's and girls’ sports teams.

“Everybody gets hard on the language. They get mad if you use this word or that word. I just think girls’ sports are for girls, and boys’ sports are for boys. I think that’s fair and reasonable,” he said. “At the same time, look, I respect a woman’s right to choose and reproductive freedom. If you want to get a gay marriage, help yourself.”

The race is expected to be one of the most competitive of the midterms. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both classify it as Leans Democratic, meaning it is competitive but that Sand has a slight advantage.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.