Democrats Take Double-Digit Poll Lead 40 Days Out From Midterms - Newsweek

Democrats lead Republicans by 11 points on the congressional ballot, 53 percent to 42 percent, in an Emerson College poll released 40 days before the midterms.

The result matches a previous series high first reached in Emerson’s July poll.

That advantage places the GOP in a difficult national environment as voters prepare to decide control of Congress.

Republican candidates face particular pressure among independents and Hispanic voters, two groups that backed President Donald Trump more strongly in 2024.

Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment via email on Thursday morning.

Democrats have moved from a tie in Emerson’s polling in August 2025 to matching their largest lead of the series.

Yet a generic ballot measures the national mood, not the individual contests that will determine the House and Senate.

The latest Emerson College Polling national survey questioned 1,000 likely U.S. voters on September 21 and 22. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Democratic support stands at 53 percent, equaling the series high first reached in July. Republican support is at 42 percent, producing an 11-point gap.

That margin has developed gradually.

Democrats led by one point in September 2025, four points the following month and six points by December.

Their advantage reached eight points in January, briefly narrowed to seven in March and then remained at between nine and 11 points from April onward.

August brought a modest Republican improvement, with the Democratic lead falling to eight points, 51 percent to 43 percent. September reversed that movement.

"While the generic ballot test doesn’t capture nuances of individual races, it’s an important metric to gauge the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release.

The coalition behind the Democratic margin matters as much as its size.

Independents favor Democrats by 29 points, while Hispanic voters give the party a 33-point advantage.

Those findings suggest Republicans are struggling with voters outside their core base, although demographic subsets carry wider uncertainty than the full sample.

Turnout enthusiasm also leans Democratic.

Overall, 71 percent say they are very excited to vote, with a further 20 percent somewhat excited. Only 10 percent report little or no enthusiasm, allowing for rounding.

High excitement does not guarantee participation, but the partisan difference gives Democrats a potentially useful organizational advantage heading into the closing weeks.

Trump’s job approval stands at 39 percent, while 58 percent disapprove, his highest disapproval rating of the second term in Emerson’s series.

More than half of voters, 56 percent, say his second term has gone worse than expected.

Twenty-six percent believe it has gone better, and 18 percent say his performance is about what they expected.

That judgment has become more negative since Emerson’s April 2025 survey.

At that point, 43 percent said Trump was doing worse than anticipated and 34 percent said he was doing better.

Presidential approval is not the same as congressional voting intention.

Still, unpopular presidents can make it harder for candidates from their party to separate local campaigns from the national political climate.

Economic dissatisfaction sits at the center of the poll.

Sixty percent say Trump’s policies are making the economy worse, compared with 28 percent who believe they are improving it.

Another 13 percent say the policies have had no effect or that it is too early to judge.

More significantly for the midterms, voters who identify the economy as their leading concern favor Democrats by 14 points.

"Voters who say the economy is the top issue break for the Democratic candidate, 55 percent to 41 percent, notable considering those who said the economy is their top issue broke consistently for Republicans in 2024," Kimball said.

Democrats' advantage among voters who say the economy is their top issue gives the party an opening on terrain Republicans have traditionally sought to make their own.

Both parties sought to frame the results in their favor after the survey's release.

In a statement to Newsweek, Democratic National Committee spokesperson Kendall Witmer said Democrats had "momentum on our side" heading into the midterms and would continue voter outreach efforts through Election Day.

The Republican National Committee disputed the significance of the poll. In a statement to Newsweek, RNC National Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre said polls are "a snapshot in time, not a crystal ball" and accused Newsweek of "cherry-pick[ing] data." Baldassarre said Republicans were focused on using their "record-sized war chest" to protect and expand their congressional majorities.

Whether Democrats can maintain their advantage over the final 40 days will depend on events, turnout and the candidates contesting individual districts.