Democrats Take Nationwide Lead on Economy for First Time in Almost 9 Years - Newsweek

Democrats have moved narrowly ahead of Republicans on which party Americans trust to handle the economy, their first lead in NBC News polling since December 2017.

The shift comes weeks before the November midterms, when prices and household finances are likely to influence closely fought congressional races.

Candidates in both parties must now appeal to voters dissatisfied with the economy but skeptical of both Democrats and Republicans.

Republicans have traditionally enjoyed an economic advantage, including a 21-point lead in the NBC News series three years ago.

That edge has disappeared as most voters say Trump’s policies have hurt the economy, although the latest one-point Democratic lead is within the poll’s margin of error.

The latest NBC News survey shows that Republicans’ longstanding advantage on the economy has effectively disappeared, leaving the parties level in statistical terms and Democrats fractionally ahead.

The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from September 11 to 15 through telephone interviews and an online survey distributed by text message.

Public Opinion Strategies, led by Republican pollster Bill McInturff, conducted the survey with the Democratic firm Hart Research Associates.

Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, meaning the current difference between Democrats and the GOP is not statistically decisive.

Even so, the longer movement is substantial.

Republicans were favored 49-28 percent on economic trust three years earlier, while recent surveys in the series had placed the parties roughly level.

Inflation produced a clearer result.

Democrats led by seven points on which party voters trusted to control rising prices, an issue closely connected to Americans’ everyday assessment of the economy.

Fifty-five percent of respondents said Trump’s policies had hurt the economy. Twenty-six percent believed they had helped, while 18 percent said they had made little difference.

The negative figure had risen from 48 percent in March.

At a comparable stage before the 2018 midterms, 41 percent said Trump’s policies had helped the economy and 26 percent said they had caused harm.

Those findings accompanied weaker assessments of the president overall.

Some of Trump’s economic proposals also appear to face resistance from voters.

At the recent Republican convention, Trump proposed giving every adult $5,000 if the GOP retained control of Congress.

The survey found that 21 percent would be more likely to support a candidate who backed the plan, while 46 percent would be less likely.

Trump's approval rating among registered voters was 41 percent and his disapproval rating was 56 percent, giving a net approval rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of -15 percentage points.

A quarter strongly approved of his performance, the second-lowest such reading across his two terms in the NBC News series.

Other recent polling reinforces the importance of affordability.

A Marquette Law School Poll conducted online through the SSRS Opinion Panel from September 2 to 9 found inflation and the cost of living was the leading issue for 37 percent of adults, more than twice the 16 percent who selected the broader economy.

That survey interviewed 1,023 adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Kalshi gave Democrats a 61 percent chance of sweeping both chambers as of September 22.

Traders priced a Democratic House and Republican Senate at 30 percent, a Republican sweep at 8.7 percent and a Democratic Senate with a Republican House at 0.9 percent.

Prediction markets measure the prices of contracts tied to future outcomes, not voter intentions.

They can move quickly in response to polls and campaign events, so the figures are best understood as traders’ current expectations rather than a forecast of certain results.

The NBC News poll gave Democrats a 50 percent to 45 percent advantage on the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they would prefer without naming individual candidates.

The five-point margin was smaller than the 12-point lead Democrats held at the corresponding stage in 2018, when the party went on to win control of the House.

Democrats’ own standing limits how far the result can be interpreted as positive enthusiasm for the party.

Twenty-nine percent viewed Democrats favorably and 50 percent unfavorably, while Republicans received ratings of 36 percent positive and 49 percent negative.

Opposition to the president appears to be a stronger motivator. Forty-three percent said their congressional vote was intended as a signal against Trump, compared with 27 percent who wanted to support him.

Among independents, 46 percent viewed their vote as opposition and 10 percent as support.

"Donald Trump has achieved his goal of making this election about him at a historic level. The problem for Trump and Republicans on the ballot in November is that he has also made history in the highest share of voters who say their vote is in opposition to Trump," Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates told NBC News.

He also cautioned that the findings reflected opposition to Trump and Republicans rather than a broader improvement in his party’s standing.

"This speaks more to deep dissatisfaction with Trump and Republicans than a ringing endorsement of Democrats," he said. "The party in power does not have a positive story to tell on the major issues of the day: inflation, corruption and the Iran war. Voters are continuing to look for change."

National polling also cannot capture the political geography of every race.

"We have a classic battle between these numbers and the political geography in which this campaign will be decided," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

"And the Republicans are still standing because of the geography in which this election will be won or lost."

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.