Donald Trump's $5,000 dividend checks could get blocked by court

President Donald Trump promised to pay out $5,000 to Americans if Republicans win both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 midterms, but it’s unclear if such a move would hold up against court challenges.

Trump made the promise during remarks at the first Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday. The “Trump dividend,” the president said, would be issued if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress. His promise comes as polls show Republicans trailing on the generic ballot and locked in close Senate races in several states Trump won in his 2024 White House victory, including Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia and Texas.

"Because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000," Trump said. "Very much like a successful company will do a cash distribution to its shareholders."

Republicans and Trump have held the unprecedented midterm GOP convention in an attempt to build momentum among their base, but Trump’s approval rating has hit new lows as voters express concerns over issues like tariffs, inflation and the cost of living.

Historically, presidents have struggled during midterms. During Trump's first term in office, Republicans lost 41 seats to a Blue wave in the House.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek that Trump has “consistently proven his doubters wrong.”

“The doomers and naysayers have consistently doubted President Trump. When he pledged to create the historic Trump Accounts, lowered prescription prices with most favored nations, secured the border with no crossings, cleaned up our streets, ended taxes on tips, grew real wages, renegotiated broken trade deals, and reshored key manufacturing back to the United States,” he said.

Barbara McQuade, a former federal prosecutor, in remarks to Newsweek, expressed skepticism that the promise would hold up against court challenges.

The language of 18 U.S.C. § 597, which makes it a crime to buy votes, would “seem to fit what Trump is offering,” she said.

This would likely not be protected by the presidential immunity the Supreme Court found in 2024, which is “limited at the outer perimeter of a president’s official duties,” she said.

“This promise came from Trump as a political party member, not as president,” she said.

Michael McAuliffe, a former federal prosecutor and former elected state attorney, told Newsweek the proposal is “suspect in many ways.”

“In any other context, such a brazen statement would justify law enforcement opening a preliminary investigation to assess the conduct through the lens of potential illegality,” he said. “Offering a financial inducement to vote in a certain way in an election is potentially a crime.”

Neama Rahmani, also a former federal prosecutor, however, told Newsweek that the promise could “theoretically” violate the statute, but that “practically speaking, an investigation" wouldn't go anywhere.

He said Trump’s statement would “almost certainly be viewed as immune official acts when he leaves office” by a court, and that there is “arguably" no quid pro quo because anyone would get the check, regardless of whether they vote for a Republican or not, so long as the GOP wins.

“Politicians make these types of promises all the time and they're political speech protected by the First Amendment,” he said. “Democrats promise to forgive student loans or give certain types of tax credits if they're elected, for instance.”

The statute states that a person who “makes or offers to make an expenditure to any person, either to vote or withhold his vote, or to vote for or against any candidate” or who “solicits, accepts, or receives any such expenditure in consideration of his vote or the withholding of his vote” should be “fined or imprisoned not more than one year.”

If the violation was “willful,” they should be “fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both,” according to Cornell Law School’s Legal Information Institute.

The promise has faced skepticism beyond legal concerns, with critics noting that Trump has talked about other payments that ultimately did not come to fruition. His administration previously talked about sending out $2,000 tariff refunds as well as a “DOGE Dividend.”

Representative Dan Goldman, a New York Democrat, cast doubt that Trump would be able to pass such a dividend in a post on X.

Trump told CBS News he does not believe Congress needs to approve it.

“I think they will do it if we needed it. But we think not. The country is doing so well, we've taken in trillions of dollars in tariffs and other things. We have now over $20 trillion worth of manufacturing plants and other investments being made in the United States, which is far greater than ever before. And we think it's something that'll be good,” he said.

“Actually, only Congress can make that promise since it must appropriate those funds. And Congress would never do it because it is corrupt and blatantly illegal. The American people were fooled once by Trump’s false promises. They won’t be fooled again by his increasingly desperate and deranged promises,” he wrote.

Erica York, senior economist of the Tax Foundation, wrote on X, “Let’s review. In February 2025 Trump floated $5,000 DOGE dividends. Didn’t happen. In November 2025, he said we’d be getting $2,000 tariff dividends. Didn’t happen. Now in September 2026 we’re being promised another $5,000 tariff dividend. Not gonna happen.”

The tariffs could cost an estimated more than $1.2 trillion, according to Reuters.

Representative Robert Garcia, a California Democrat, said on Thursday he believes the dividend is “not happening.”

“Donald Trump is a known liar,” he said during a press conference. “This is the biggest liar to ever serve in government, period. The dividend is not happening. He promised a dividend on the tariffs. That didn't happen. He promised a dividend on DOGE. That didn't happen. He promised some strange new dividend from Air Force One, what six months ago? That never happened.”

Republican activist Matt Walsh criticized the idea in a post on X.

“Spending over a trillion dollars to randomly send everyone in the country a check for five grand, including people who are not even net taxpayers—which makes this, yes, welfare—is idiotic. Sorry. We did that during covid and it didn't help anything,” he wrote.

He added that if Republicans “thought this was a good idea” to boost the economy, they “could have done it at any point in the past two years.”

“They've been in power this whole time. Holding it as a carrot on the stick for after the election is just shameless,” he wrote.

Trump’s tied his proposal to the outcome of the midterms, but polls currently indicate Republicans may find their majorities in an vulnerable position, particularly in the House.

In the battle for control of the lower chamber, the latest polls give Democrats an edge on the generic ballot.

The latest numbers from YouGov showed Democrats up 7 points, 42 percent to 35 percent. Morning Consult’s polling data showed Democrats up 4 points, 46 percent to 42 percent. And Reuters/Ipsos gave Democrats a 5-point lead, 43 percent to 38 percent.

The YouGov poll surveyed 1,015 likely voters from September 4 to September 8. The Morning Consult poll was conducted as part of the pollster’s weekly tracking from August 31 to September 6. The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 924 registered voters from August 28 to August 31.

Prediction markets continue to favor Democrats regaining the majority in the House. As of Thursday, Democrats had an 84 percent chance of flipping the House on Kalshi and an 87 percent chance on Polymarket.

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.

The Senate remains viewed as a tougher lift for Democrats.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to win control if they defend every race in a seat they currently hold. Vice President JD Vance serves as the tiebreaker in a split Senate.

In order to flip the Senate majority, Democrats must defend their seats while flipping GOP-held seats in competitive states and longtime red territory.

Democrats are defending seats in Trump-won states Georgia and Michigan, but have seen polling gains in states like Alaska, Texas, Ohio and North Carolina.

Even if Democrats defend Georgia and Michigan, they will need to flip four states. Polling suggests Maine and North Carolina are the most likely candidates. But Democrats would need two more victories in states Trump won in 2024.

This means Democrats must expand the Senate battleground and compete in more conservative areas if they want to win the majority. They are targeting GOP-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential states to flip. The Cook Political Report classifies all four of those races as toss-ups.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jenni Fink and Geoffrey Rowland.