Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Changes Among Most-Conservative Americans - Newsweek

President Donald Trump’s approval rating among very conservative Americans fell from 84 percent in July to 76 percent in September, according to a new Marquette Law School Poll.

The 8-point movement could signal frustration within the president’s most ideologically aligned constituency ahead of the midterms, when motivation can be as important as persuasion, although two political scientists told Newsweek that the small subgroup demands caution.

Grant Reeher, a political-science professor at Syracuse University, identified the Iran war and household financial pressure as possible explanations for the shift.

Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, said weak ratings on inflation, the economy, and gasoline prices suggested dissatisfaction with results rather than an ideological break.

The Republican National Committee (RNC), meanwhile, has rejected the suggestion that the results point toward a broader weakening of conservative support.

"Polls serve as a snapshot in time, not a crystal ball, and Newsweek’s attempt to cherry-pick data to manufacture Republican collapse is lazy spin," Natalie Baldassarre, the RNC’s national press secretary, told Newsweek.

She went on to say that "the same poll shows conservative voter enthusiasm continues to grow, especially as we’re coming off our Republican Convention that further energized our base, touted the president’s achievements, and exposed the Democrats’ far-left agenda to tens of millions of people."

A comparison of the July and September polls partly supports the RNC’s argument: reported voting likelihood increased among very conservative respondents, while the broader measure of enthusiasm declined.

Very conservative voters form part of the dependable electoral base Republicans need to turn out in a midterm election.

Losing approval is not the same as losing their votes, but reduced motivation within a strongly supportive group could make close congressional races harder for GOP candidates.

Marquette’s September cross tabs found that among very conservative Americans, Trump’s net approval, calculated by subtracting disapproval from approval, fell 16 points from plus 68 in July to plus 52 in September, meaning approval still exceeded disapproval by 52 points but by a substantially narrower margin.

It does not mean that 8 percent of the same people changed their minds because the surveys interviewed different samples.

Some 110 respondents made up the very conservative subgroup in September, meaning its margin of error is substantially larger than the one reported for the full national sample.

"I would interpret the eight-point movement cautiously," Panagopoulos told Newsweek. "A single subgroup shift can reflect sampling variability; it becomes much more meaningful if it persists across multiple polls."

Reeher made the same methodological point: "Margins of error among that group for a yes-no response are larger than the change tracked. That doesn’t mean there isn’t something there, but I wouldn’t go to the bank on it."

The wider survey nevertheless provides possible explanations worth watching.

Economic assessments, for example, were particularly weak.

Approval stood at 19 percent for his handling of inflation and the cost of living, 20 percent for gasoline prices and 28 percent for the economy.

And inflation’s prominence as the public’s leading concern gives those ratings added political weight.

"Even highly supportive voters can become less approving when they are dissatisfied with specific outcomes," Panagopoulos said.

He described economic concerns as a plausible contributor but cautioned that the poll cannot establish what caused individual respondents to disapprove.

Reeher said voters on the economic margins may be exhausting limited savings and growing more anxious as prices remain high.

He also pointed to the Iran war as the likeliest additional driver, reasoning that attitudes toward tariffs, immigration, and Trump’s "over the top language and petty arguments about naming things" were probably already reflected in July.

Approval of the president’s handling of the Iran war stood at 26 percent in the September survey.

That placed it below his ratings on tariffs, foreign policy, immigration and border security, but above his figures for gasoline prices and inflation.

The RNC has argued the poll showed that "conservative voter enthusiasm continues to grow," but Marquette’s cross tabs present a mixed picture.

Among very conservative adults, 48 percent said they were very enthusiastic about voting in September, compared with 47 percent in July.

Yet the combined share who were very or somewhat enthusiastic declined from 78 percent to 74 percent, a 4-percentage-point decline.

Voting likelihood rose more clearly. Seventy-two percent said they were absolutely certain to vote, up from 69 percent, while the share who were either certain or very likely to participate increased from 80 percent to 87 percent.

The results therefore suggest stronger voting intention without a broad rise in enthusiasm, although the comparison is based on different, relatively small subgroups of 145 and 110 respondents and may reflect sampling variation.

The latest survey was conducted from September 2 to 9, 2026, interviewing 1,023 adults nationwide. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

The comparison survey was conducted from July 22 to 29 among 1,076 adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Neither expert viewed lower presidential approval as evidence that very conservative Americans were preparing to support Democrats in large numbers.

"Voting for a Democratic alternative is a higher bar than stating lack of approval," Reeher said. "But it suggests more about potential turnout effects than vote choice. And in a midterm, that’s really important."

Panagopoulos said sustained dissatisfaction could leave conservative voters less inclined to participate in campaign activity or encourage others to vote even if they ultimately remain loyal to Republican candidates.

In other words, a weakening base does not need to defect en masse to affect a close race.

Some voters simply staying home could be enough to alter the result.

The White House has repeatedly pointed to Trump’s 2024 election victory as a more meaningful measure of public support than subsequent approval polling, while arguing that the administration’s economic agenda is still taking effect.

"The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda," White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in emailed comments the administration has used in response to multiple polling inquiries.

"No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more. The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect."

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.