Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Shifts With America’s Most Educated - Newsweek

President Donald Trump’s approval rating among college-educated Americans has fallen sharply in recent weeks, potentially adding to Republicans’ challenges as they fight to retain control of Congress in November.

Trump’s approval among college graduates fell from 34 percent in an Economist/YouGov poll conducted August 21-24 to 31 percent in its August 28-31 survey. It dropped again to 30 percent in the poll conducted September 4-8. Over the same period, disapproval rose from 63 percent to 69 percent, widening Trump’s net deficit with the group from 29 points to 39 points.

The shift is politically significant because college graduates have become an increasingly important part of the Democratic coalition, while Trump’s 2024 victory was powered more heavily by voters without four-year degrees. About two-thirds of Trump’s voters did not have a college degree, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters. By contrast, college graduates accounted for 48 percent of former Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters.

The surveys do not establish what caused the decline but three consecutive readings in the same direction could be an ominous signal for Republican candidates whose races could be shaped by dissatisfaction with the president and turnout among college-educated voters.

Polls have been known to underestimate Trump's popularity, with the president outperforming preelection expectations in three presidential campaigns.

Speaking about the shift in Trump's general approval rating, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle previously told Newsweek: "The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.

Newsweek has contacted the White House, via email outside of normal working hours, for comment.

The decline was driven not only by fewer college graduates approving of Trump’s performance, but also by an increase in the intensity of opposition to him.

In the August 21-24 Economist/YouGov poll, 34 percent of college graduates approved of Trump’s job performance and 63 percent disapproved. Fifty-four percent said they strongly disapproved. The survey questioned 1,536 U.S. adult citizens, including 504 college graduates.

One week later, Trump’s approval among college graduates fell to 31 percent, while disapproval increased to 68 percent. The proportion who strongly disapproved rose to 57 percent. That poll surveyed 1,592 adult citizens, including 563 college graduates.

The September 4-8 poll recorded another, smaller shift: 30 percent of college graduates approved of Trump and 69 percent disapproved, including 61 percent who strongly disapproved. By comparison, 41 percent of respondents without a degree approved and 57 percent disapproved—giving Trump an 11-point approval advantage among Americans without college degrees.

Trump also underperformed with college graduates on the issues tested in the latest survey. Among the group, 28 percent approved of his handling of the economy and 72 percent disapproved. His rating on inflation was lower still, with 25 percent approving and 73 percent disapproving. College graduates also gave him net-negative ratings on taxes and government spending.

The polls’ overall margins of error ranged from approximately 3.4 to 3.5 percentage points. YouGov did not publish separate margins of error for college graduates, meaning week-to-week movement within the subgroup may fall within normal polling variation.

Nevertheless, the three consecutive surveys show Trump moving in the same direction, with his net rating among college graduates deteriorating by 10 points in less than three weeks.

The same polls indicate that college graduates are currently leaning heavily toward Democratic congressional candidates. In the September 4-8 survey, 57 percent of college graduates said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 28 percent who chose the Republican—a 29-point Democratic advantage. Among voters without degrees, Republicans led by 39 percent to 33 percent.

The demographic could also be strongly represented at the polls: 78 percent of college graduates said they would definitely vote in November, compared with 67 percent of Americans without degrees.

The findings suggest a Democratic advantage among college graduates, but national polling cannot predict individual congressional races, where local issues, candidates and turnout will help determine the results.