European air traffic expected to shrink by 110,000 flights amid Middle East tensions - Anadolu Ajansı

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are expected to slow European air traffic growth, leading to a loss of around 110,000 flights in 2026, according to forecasts from aviation agency Eurocontrol.

The European aviation sector performed below growth expectations despite strong passenger demand in the summer.

The number of flights in the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) region is expected to grow by 1.7% this year to 11.2 million, below the previously projected 2.7% growth, marking a 1-percentage-point downward revision.

Developments in the region that prompted changes in flight routes and sent jet fuel prices soaring affected the growth outlook for European aviation, but Eurocontrol expects growth to regain momentum next year, with a projected 3.2% increase to 11.6 million flights in 2027.

The downward revision to this year's growth forecast fueled expectations that the number of flights next year may also fall short of estimates.

Eurocontrol assumes the situation in the Middle East will stabilize by the end of the first quarter of 2027, but a more pessimistic scenario forecasts tensions persisting until the end of the first quarter of 2028, with high fuel costs and weak economic growth limiting air travel demand.

The recovery in air traffic is expected to become more pronounced next year, but the organization noted that the recovery could be stronger in Türkiye and some Eastern Mediterranean countries.

The number of flights across Europe is expected to rise by an average of 2.1% per year from 2026 to 2032, while the total number of flights in the region is estimated to reach around 12.8 million by 2032, according to Eurocontrol.

While the organization expects the medium-term growth outlook to remain largely the same, the number of flights may fall slightly short of previous expectations due to geopolitical developments.

Eurocontrol's network management report recorded an average of 35,679 flights per day in European airspace last month, up 2.5% month-on-month.

The busiest day was Sept. 4, when 37,548 flights were recorded in European airspace. Total delays due to air traffic flow management reached a little over 2.4 million minutes, according to the report.

Capacity constraints, adverse weather and air traffic management issues affected operational performance despite the rise in air traffic.

Geopolitical developments, airspace restrictions, energy prices and air travel demand will determine trends in the coming period, the organization said.