European leaders warn of ‘intensified threat’ from Putin
BRUSSELS — Top European officials are increasingly alarmed that Russia could stage drone or missile attacks against NATO countries as Moscow steps up its hybrid campaign across the continent.
Germany is preparing hospitals for a possible conflict, Lithuania has updated evacuation plans and NATO troops are exercising in the Baltic region, while Belarusian forces have staged large maneuvers near Lithuania.
That comes after numerous Russian violations of NATO airspace, increased cyberattacks, and an intensified Russian missile and drone campaign that is pounding Ukrainian cities and hitting targets close to Poland.
On Thursday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned Moscow could send drones or missiles into the territory of NATO countries supporting Ukraine in “the next few months.”
French President Emmanuel Macron summoned party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates for an emergency meeting on Friday to talk about Ukraine, Iran and the growing energy crisis.
He called Tusk’s warnings “sound and well-documented” as he announced a new critical infrastructure protection plan, adding: “In recent weeks … the Russian hybrid threat against Europeans and France has intensified.”
Guillaume Lacroix, leader of the Radical Party of the Left, left the meeting saying: “At the age of 50, I have rarely felt such vertigo.”
“It is no coincidence that the Polish prime minister is speaking out so strongly,” Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten said Friday. “We need to take that warning very seriously … we must consistently demonstrate that we do not accept this and that we will take action if necessary.”
On Thursday, Finnish President Alexander Stubb told his country it was “worth mentally preparing for something to happen” including sabotage and Russian drones.
Moscow is also ramping up its bellicose rhetoric ahead of Russia’s legislative election this weekend that is widely expected to keep President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party in power.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov this week warned Europe it would face a “very short” war if NATO allies attempted to attack the country.
“Russia has stepped up the pace of its activities — we need to remain vigilant,” said one senior European defense official, who was granted anonymity to speak freely. “This may be seen as a manifestation of a broader trend … we have seen similar warnings before, and there may well be more to come.”
So far, the latest incidents haven’t prompted any additional multilateral responses, a second senior European defense official said. But “we are monitoring closely,” they added.
Staying the course
On Friday, German and Swedish forces carried out joint exercises near the strategic Swedish island of Gotland, just weeks after NATO allies carried out unannounced exercises near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
In recent weeks, NATO jets shot down a Russian drone over Lithuania, a Russian ship fired flares at a Danish military helicopter and Germany blamed an attempted drone attack at Leipzig airport on a suspected Russian spy.
U.S. intelligence reports in August warned that Moscow was planning a limited assault on a NATO country in the coming years. CIA Director John Ratcliffe warned Russian officials in Moscow late last month not to escalate conflict with NATO allies, in particular Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Yet it remains unclear whether the latest warnings are based on fresh intelligence.
On Friday, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Vilnius had “the same intelligence” as Tusk “about a possible foreign-flag operation” but suggested that dated back to July.
“I see the public statements of politicians about this as part of a coordinated campaign to warn Russia not to make stupid decisions and not to try to do something thinking that it will not reach [NATO’s mutual defense clause] Article 5 and will not be washed away,” he said.
Allies have not formally been briefed on any new intelligence inside NATO, according to two alliance diplomats, and NATO has so far not changed its threat assessment.
“At this time, we see no imminent threat of attack,” said a NATO official speaking on behalf of the organization, adding: “But we cannot not be naive or complacent, and we must make sure NATO remains strong in the years ahead.”
Ed Arnold, a former NATO official and adviser at the D Group consultancy, said the warnings could also be designed to raise public awareness of threats and to “pre-bunk” false flag attacks before they take place.
A senior NATO military official said that Russia may be lashing out because of its difficulties in defeating Ukraine. “It therefore may incorrectly perceive the only way out is through increasing its hybrid campaign — that’s a losing proposition, because we are ready to respond.”
Between January and August, there were 100 officially attributed hybrid incidents across Europe compared to 60 during the same period last year, according to the Ukraine-based Sahaidachnyi Security Center think tank — with a particularly sharp rise in airspace violations.
A senior NATO official said the real number was “easily 200 plus” not counting cyberattacks — of which there are “thousands” each month against the military alliance’s Brussels headquarters alone. “Numbers are up, severity is up, [Russia’s] risk appetite is up,” they said.
