Farmers’ Almanac Predicts When The First Snow Will Fall in Every State - Newsweek
Americans in parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains could see their first measurable snowfall weeks before much of the Deep South experiences its first flakes, according to a new first-snowfall guide published by Farmers' Almanac.
The publication's latest map shows how winter weather typically advances across the United States, with snowfall generally arriving first across higher elevations and northern states before gradually pushing southward through late fall and early winter.
The arrival of the season's first snow is closely watched by winter weather enthusiasts and forecasters alike, particularly this year as meteorologists monitor developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific. El Niño can influence winter temperature patterns, storm tracks and snowfall across large portions of the United States, potentially affecting everything from early-season snow chances to the likelihood of a white Christmas in some regions.
Tony Fracasso, a meteorologist with NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, previously told Newsweek that El Niño can "affect the storm track across the country, and the amount of warm air that it could bring in over the country and keep the colder air out of the lower 48."
Fracasso said California and parts of the Southeast could experience stronger storm activity during the event, while some areas around the Great Lakes could see drier conditions. He also noted that El Niño generally brings warmer temperatures overall, although cold-air outbreaks and snowfall can still occur. Those factors could cause actual snowfall timing this winter to differ from the long-term averages shown on the Farmers' Almanac map.
The map is not a seasonal forecast for a specific storm but a climatological guide showing when measurable snowfall most commonly arrives in different regions of the country. According to Farmers' Almanac, snowfall timing can vary significantly from year to year depending on weather patterns, elevation, latitude and proximity to large bodies of water.
According to Farmers' Almanac, the earliest widespread snowfall is most common across Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota and South Dakota, where first measurable snow often arrives in October. Other northern states, including Minnesota, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, typically see their first snowfall between October and November.
Historical NOAA snowfall records reflect a similar pattern. Great Falls, Montana, recorded its earliest first measurable snowfall on August 22, 1992, while Denver's earliest first snowfall occurred on September 3, 1961. International Falls, Minnesota, recorded its earliest first snowfall on September 14, 1964, highlighting how early winter weather can arrive across parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.
Across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, November is generally the most common first-snowfall month. States including Michigan, Wisconsin, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Massachusetts fall into this category.
Farther south, first measurable snowfall usually does not arrive until late November or December across much of the central Plains, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. In the Deep South, Gulf Coast and parts of the Southwest, snowfall may not occur until December or January, if at all. NOAA records illustrate that contrast. Dallas' earliest recorded first snowfall occurred on November 13, 1976, while Charleston, South Carolina's, earliest first snowfall did not occur until December 11, 1958.
The first-snowfall guide was published by Farmers' Almanac, the long-running annual publication founded in 1818 and best known for its weather outlooks, seasonal forecasts, gardening advice and astronomical information.
Each year, the publication releases a range of seasonal weather guides, including winter outlooks, frost projections and snowfall-timing maps. The first-snowfall guide is intended as a broad climatological reference showing when measurable snow most commonly arrives in different parts of the country rather than a forecast for a specific storm or winter season.
The Farmers' Almanac says its long-range forecasts are based on a proprietary forecasting methodology and are intended to provide broad seasonal guidance rather than precise predictions for individual storms or snowfall events.
The publication notes that significant year-to-year variation can occur. In discussing first snowfall dates, it cites Denver as an example, noting that while the city's average first measurable snowfall occurs around October 18, actual first snowfall dates have ranged from September to December.
Meteorologists generally caution that long-range weather forecasting becomes more difficult as forecast horizons increase. While seasonal outlooks can identify broad trends, local snowfall timing can vary substantially from year to year because of changing storm tracks, temperature patterns and regional weather conditions.
Still, both the historical NOAA records and the Farmers' Almanac guide point to the same broad trend: winter weather typically reaches northern and higher-elevation regions first before spreading southward later in the season.
