Fitch upgrades Thailand outlook to ‘stable’ - Bangkok Post

Fitch Ratings has revised Thailand’s outlook to “stable” ​from “negative”, ‌citing increased confidence that government debt will broadly stabilise over the medium term and that political conditions will improve following the general elections ​held ⁠earlier this year.

The outlook revision reverses a downgrade warning issued last year, when concerns over rising debt and weak growth weighed on the country’s credit profile.

The Thai ⁠economy has remained resilient despite higher energy costs and softer tourism demand following tensions in the Middle East, with technology and data-centre investment helping support growth.

The ​rating action also follows a smooth political transition after the February general election, ​with ‌Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s coalition securing a working majority and easing concerns over policy ​uncertainty.

⁠In a statement on Friday, Fitch said Thailand’s strong external finances and its ability to fund ⁠most government debt domestically continue to underpin the investment-grade rating, despite elevated debt levels and modest long-term growth prospects.

Fitch said the government debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 59.3% in the 2025 fiscal year and is projected to remain below 63% by fiscal 2028, well below the statutory maximum of 70%. This represents an improvement over a previous forecast of 65%.

The agency projects that the current account balance will return to a surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2027, following a temporary deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2026, driven by high oil prices and capital goods imports for data centre construction. 

The ⁠move by Fitch follows a similar action ​by Moody’s in April, when it revised Thailand’s outlook to stable, citing reduced downside risks from US tariffs.

The ‌ratings agency ⁠also affirmed country’s BBB+ sovereign credit ​rating.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the move by Fitch “demonstrates growing confidence in the government’s policy direction”.

“The government will accelerate the concrete implementation of policies aimed at promoting investment in new industries, expediting the transition to green energy … and prioritising the maintenance of fiscal discipline to enhance potential and lay the foundation for the country’s sustainable growth,” he said.