Florida Republicans are ‘bracing for the worst’ as Democrats challenge in Trump’s home state
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President Donald Trump's unpopular policies and dismal approval ratings have fellow Republicans in his ruby-red home state of Florida on edge over the looming midterm elections.
“It’s definitely 2018 vibes out there,” former Florida GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo told Politico for a Friday report. “A lot of former colleagues are bracing for the worst.”
Curbelo, who was ousted when Democrats flipped 41 House seats in the 2018 midterms during Trump's first term, said he'd “still bet” on Republican Rep. Byron Donalds succeeding term-limited GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis.
But he acknowledged that Donalds's race against David Jolly, a former Republican House member-turned-Democrat, would “be more competitive than people could have anticipated just a few months ago.”
Republican state Sen. Don Gaetz, father of disgraced former Rep. Matt Gaetz, also said, “Anybody who is on the ballot ought to be concerned if they have a Democratic opponent.”
And a Republican county chair who spoke on condition of anonymity said, “We are not on life support. But we are hemorrhaging.”
“The question is: Do we stop the bleeding now, or wait until we reach critical conditions?” the party official added.
The White House, when asked for comment, referred The Independent to the Republican National Committee.
It released a statement from spokeswoman Delanie Bomar, who said, “Anyone who thinks Republicans' 1.5 million registration advantage means nothing should go back to second grade to learn how to count.”
“The numbers don't lie and Democrats are doomed in Florida,” she added.
The Cook Political Report last month changed its rating of the governor's race from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican, saying that Democrats have a “strong ticket” with Jolly and his running mate, former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham.
It also called the contest “unique” because of Jolly's potential ability to appeal to independents and “disaffected” Republicans.
Last week, Florida Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar criticized Trump’s mass deportation program in a campaign commercial, saying, “Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far.”
Salazar, who received Trump's endorsement in February, also publicly told him, “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”
In June, a poll released by then-Democratic House candidate Alex Vindman's campaign showed Trump's favorability rating in the Sunshine State fell 10 percentage points since January, to 46 percent favorable and 52 percent unfavorable.
In a polling memo, the Global Strategy Group said it found double-digit drops “among key groups that have fueled his success in past elections,” including white non-college voters, registered Republicans and people who voted for Trump in 2020.
A survey last week by St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics also found both the governor's race and the Senate contest between Republican Sen. Ashley Moody and Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon were essentially tied.
Donalds — who's raised nearly $121 million in campaign cash, more than 10 times as much as Jolly — told Politico the poll numbers were the result of “the overall national environment.”
Donalds also expressed confidence that Florida voters would stick with the GOP, saying that “my belief is that they're going to choose the same direction, the same kind of common sense this November.”
Five unidentified Republican operatives told Politico that they'd be concerned if Jolly raised just $20 million, with one saying that “the big fear is that a weird tech bro” might decide to back him, before adding that “the Democratic megadonors are more focused on the federal level.”
