From Texas to Kansas, the Senate and House midterm races that could decide which party runs US Congress | HT Explainers

Control of the US Congress for the last two years of Donald Trump’s second term could be decided on November 3 in roughly a dozen Senate contests and a few dozen House districts, where polls indicate that either party could win.

A woman holds a 'Turn Texas Blue' sign during early voting ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections, in Austin. (Reuters Photo)If Democrats take the House in the midterm elections, they could block parts of Trump’s legislative agenda, open investigations and step up oversight of his administration. Control of the Senate would let them shape the confirmation of cabinet officials, federal judges and any Supreme Court nominee. If Republicans keep both chambers, Trump would have a freer hand for his legislative priorities, although narrow majorities could still slow the passage of bills.

Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, counting two independents who normally vote with the Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach a 51-seat majority. A 50–50 split would leave Republicans in charge, since vice-president JD Vance casts the tie-breaking vote.

Senators serve six-year terms, staggered so that about a third of the chamber faces voters every two years. This year, 33 seats are up on that schedule, plus two special elections: in Ohio, for the seat Vance left to become vice-president, and in Florida, for the seat Marco Rubio left to become secretary of state. Republicans currently hold 22 of the 35 seats being contested and Democrats 13.

The House stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one Republican-aligned independent and two vacancies. All 435 seats are up, and a party needs 218 for a majority. Democrats therefore need four more seats than they hold now.

Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan US election forecaster, rates the most competitive races as toss-ups, where either party has a good chance of winning. The analysis here also covers races Cook rates as leaning or likely to go one party’s way.

Reuters/Ipsos put Trump’s approval at 31% in a poll that closed on October 19, the lowest in either of his terms; a week later it was 32%. Reuters reported that inflation has surged since Trump ordered strikes on Iran in February, pushing up petrol prices. In its latest poll, 73% of voters said their cost of living was heading in the wrong direction.

On the generic congressional ballot, a national question about which party’s candidate voters prefer without naming the candidates, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll had registered voters favouring Democrats by 47% to 36%. Among those most likely to vote, the gap was 53% to 44%. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll of registered voters in mid-September had Democrats ahead by 53% to 41%.

But a national lead does not convert evenly into seats. The result depends on where each party’s voters live and how the districts are drawn, and a party can win the national vote while losing the closest individual races.

Prakriti Deb is a journalist at Hindustan Times Digital, where she is part of the US Desk. She works on stories related to American politics, crime, sports, entertainment and weather. She particularly enjoys covering political developments that have global ripples. Through her work, she aims to break down complex events in a way that feels simple and understandable. Before joining the Hindustan Times, she worked with The Indian Express Digital, where she covered world affairs. She holds a postgraduate degree in Mass Communication with a specialisation in Journalism, along with a bachelor’s degree in English Literature. Outside the newsroom, Prakriti enjoys travelling and stepping out of her comfort zone. She finds her sense of being through storytelling in all its forms, including conversations, painting, theatre, dance and photography. She appreciates discussions that challenge her perspective and help her see the world a little differently.Read More