Fuel spike lifts SPI to 8.62% YoY

Pakistan's short-term inflation accelerated again as the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) rose 8.62% year-on-year in the week ended September 10, up from 8.35% a week earlier, after a sharp jump in fuel and cooking-gas prices more than offset cheaper perishables. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) put the combined SPI at 364.26, against 363.42 in the previous week and 335.35 in the corresponding week of 2025. The week-on-week increase was 0.23%. The SPI tracks 51 essential items from 50 markets in 17 cities and is used to gauge weekly price pressure on households. Energy dominated the weekly move. Petrol Super rose 6.18% to Rs369.75 a litre, high-speed diesel 5.49% to Rs394.68 and LPG 4.32% to Rs4,810.14 per 11.67kg cylinder. Other gains included pulse mash (0.79%), washing soap (0.49%), wheat flour (0.47%), pulse masoor (0.46%), mustard oil (0.36%) and 5-litre cooking oil (0.23%). Relief came from food. Bananas fell 7.73%, tomatoes 5.24%, chicken 4.22%, onions 3.72%, potatoes 1.88%, eggs 0.68%, garlic 0.44% and sugar 0.42%. Of 51 items, prices of 14 (27.45%) rose, 10 (19.61%) fell and 27 (52.94%) were unchanged. The annual picture remains harsh for staples and energy. Onions were 125.52% dearer than a year ago, LPG 55.42%, diesel 45.26%, petrol 39.10%, wheat flour 30.18% and first-slab electricity 25.24%. Chilli powder, mutton, beef, bananas, fresh milk and plain bread also posted double-digit or high-single-digit yearly increases. Offsetting that, potatoes were 35.21% cheaper than a year earlier, chicken 24.30%, sugar 20.88%, eggs 19.95% and tomatoes 17.65%. The burden was uneven. The lowest expenditure group (Q1, up to Rs17,732 a month) saw a 0.30% week-on-week drop and a 7.38% yearly rise. Q2 and Q3 also eased on a weekly basis. Higher-income groups absorbed the fuel shock: Q5 (above Rs44,175) rose 0.47% week-on-week and 8.92% year-on-year. The weekly reading comes after August's broader inflation rebound. National CPI rose 11.1% year-on-year in August 2026, against 9.2% in July and 3.1% in August 2025, and was unchanged at 1.2% month-on-month. Urban CPI was up 10.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month; rural CPI rose 12.2% and 1.6% respectively. Monthly SPI inflation was 9.5% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in August, while Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation climbed 11.8% year-on-year and 2.0% month-on-month. The latest weekly data show that cheaper fruit, vegetables and poultry are still cushioning the poorest households, but imported energy continues to keep the yearly SPI elevated and to lift the index for higher-income groups.