German far-right AfD poll winner says Merz 'twilight' has begun - CNA

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz gives a statement after first exit polls of the Berlin and Mecklenburg Western Pomerania state elections, at the CDU headquarters in Berlin, Germany, on Sep 20, 2026. (Photo: Reuters/Christian Mang)

BERLIN: Germany's far-right AfD predicted on Monday (Sep 21) that Chancellor Friedrich Merz will be out of office before the end of the year, a day after his centre-right CDU party suffered two bruising state election defeats.

The Alternative for Germany came first in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania where the CDU sank to 4.9 per cent, below the threshold to stay in parliament and its worst result since the party was formed in 1945.

"The chancellor certainly won't make it to the end of the year," said Leif-Erik Holm, the AfD's top candidate in the Baltic Sea coastal state. "I think the twilight of the chancellor's era has begun."

At just 16 months in office, Merz has seen his approval ratings plummet while his party has suffered a string of state vote losses against the AfD, which also leads the nationwide polls.

CNA Games Guess Word Crack the word, one row at a time Buzzword Create words using the given letters Mini Sudoku Tiny puzzle, mighty brain teaser Mini Crossword Small grid, big challenge Word Search Spot as many words as you can Show More Show Less Fighting speculation that his CDU/CSU bloc may try to oust him, the 70-year-old chancellor took the unusual step of addressing the nation on TV on Sunday, just minutes after the first exit polls were announced.

Merz admitted that his CDU had suffered a "disaster" in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

While the AfD came first there, the centre-left SPD party looks set to continue governing the state if it can form a coalition with left-wing allies.

After the CDU was also soundly defeated by a far-left Die Linke in Berlin, Merz charged that "trust in our country's institutions is waning" and being "actively undermined by radical parties on both the left and the right".

"What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience," Merz said. "I will demonstrate this as CDU party chairman and, above all, as chancellor of our country."

Analysts saw it as an attempt to gain the advantage before another hailstorm of criticism.

"His extremely early move shows that Merz is staking a claim to define the narrative," political scientist Oliver Lembcke of Ruhr University Bochum told AFP.

Lembcke labelled this "leadership from a defensive position - and an attempt to prevent a personnel debate with an uncertain outcome from gathering steam".

ING bank economist Carsten Brzeski said of Merz's unusual TV address: "Read the appearance for what it was, an attempt to choke off the speculation about his possible resignation that has been building in recent weeks."

The chancellor has also cleared his calendar for the following days and skipped a trip to New York for the UN General Assembly to deal with potential aftershocks from the votes.

Merz has been fighting off rumours he may be ousted for weeks.

Names of hopefuls for the top job that have been floated include Hendrik Wuest, state premier of populous North Rhine-Westphalia, and Markus Soeder, the Bavarian state premier and head of the CSU, the regional sister party of the CDU.

However, no contender has made an open move for the job - perhaps fearing the act of disloyalty could backfire, or intimidated by the tough task of trying to revive the party's fortunes during one of its worst-ever crises.

When Merz took office in May last year, he vowed to reboot a flagging economy, rebuild the military to deter Russia and reduce irregular immigration to soothe voters' fears and lure them away from the AfD.

But his personal approval ratings are hovering just above 10 per cent, not helped by his occasionally blunt and abrasive comments.

The latest elections came two weeks after the far-right, pro-Trump and Moscow-friendly AfD also dealt a stunning defeat to the CDU in the state of Saxony-Anhalt.

The string of election debacles comes as Merz has struggled to push through promised economic and social welfare reforms with his coalition partners in the SPD.

Under-fire Merz received some badly needed support from CDU powerbrokers last week when eight state premiers declared jointly that Germany needs "stability now more than ever" rather than "discussions about personnel".

They refrained, however, from issuing a personal endorsement of the chancellor.