Greece vs. Turkey in seabed scramble
KALISPERA, this is Nektaria Stamouli, writing from Athens today.
BUDGET BLACKMAIL: Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico today accused Friedrich Merz of “classic blackmail,” after the German chancellor threatened to block agreement on the EU’s next seven-year budget unless member countries agreed to fill Ukraine’s funding gap.
There was no sign Merz would back down, however. Later in the day, speaking alongside Hungarian PM Péter Magyar in Berlin, the German leader called a “fundamental understanding of how we will support Ukraine in the coming years” a “prerequisite for successfully concluding the budget negotiations.”
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TANGLED CABLES: Tensions between Athens and Ankara are flaring again over a planned electricity interconnector from Greece to Cyprus, which is colliding with Turkey’s increasingly bold maritime claims in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Disputed project: The €1.9 billion Great Sea Interconnector aims to link the European mainland to Cyprus, and later Israel. A French research vessel will leave the Cretan port of Heraklion today or tomorrow to survey the seabed for the cabling.
Turkey on the look-out: The Turkish foreign ministry argues the vessel will be engaging in “unlawful” research and “unauthorized cable-laying on the Turkish continental shelf.”
Dangerous fault line: Never ignore the security implications of maritime disputes, which can easily spiral into high-stakes brinkmanship with jet fighters over the Aegean.
Broader border battle: The cable clash comes as Turkey’s wider maritime territory claims are stoking alarm within the EU. Tensions are escalating after the ratification of a border-mapping deal between Turkey and Libya, which attempts to carve off parts of the sea Greece and Cyprus regard as theirs.
Enter the French: Three months ago, French company Meridiam became the interconnector project’s majority shareholder. Athens says it has not requested Turkish authorization, but France sent a formal diplomatic note to Ankara. Despite cross-party support for the energy project, Greece’s opposition is accusing the government of making risky concessions to Turkey.
“Unfortunately, [the government’s] foreign policy has failed miserably and has rendered the country unable to exercise its sovereign rights in the region, forcing it to seek Turkey’s permission or consent in order to exercise those rights,” former PM and Elas party leader Alexis Tsipras said in an interview.
Changing lines: “Greece’s argument initially was that no permit is required to lay a cable and suddenly, for communication purposes, it changed its argument and said Greece and Cyprus are the countries responsible for authorizing these activities,” Stelios Fenekos, a retired Greek rear admiral, told Brussels Playbook Capitals.
Fait accompli: Fenekos argued Greece had reached an impasse it had created itself, as France’s diplomatic note could be viewed as acknowledging Turkey’s claims. But Greek government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis denied France’s note to Ankara implied “recognition of maritime jurisdiction.”
Migration crisis: In the meantime, the regional security situation is growing more complex in relation to migration. Thousands of migrants have arrived in Crete from Libya since early November, and Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris said Libyan authorities had stopped cooperating. “We are preparing for a crisis on Crete,” he said. Over the past 48 hours, 22 people lost their lives in two new shipwrecks off the island’s coast.
NEXT TAKEDOWN: Five-time Olympic gold medalist Teddy Riner sent France into a frenzy yesterday (and inspired fantastic memes), after announcing his presidential bid. But in an already overcrowded race — by one count, there are nearly 40 candidates — can the legendary judoka break through? Even if he doesn’t, he can disrupt the field.
Respect your opponent: He’s certainly not to be dismissed. A longtime supporter of President Emmanuel Macron said the millions of views Riner racked up in his launch video was “incredible.” And according to this morning’s Playbook Paris, several sources noted he could peel away supporters backing far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon for his antiracism platform specifically. Riner also supports lower taxes for business and retirement reform.
No intro needed: Name recognition won’t be a problem. A poll earlier this year ranked him France’s second-most popular athlete. And the sports-to-politics pivot has precedents, like Pakistani cricketer Imran Khan, Liberian striker George Weah and a slew of examples from the U.S.
Creating space: Given the dire outlook for the myriad centrist and conservative candidates and the solidifying leads of Mélenchon and far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen in the polls, there’s space for a well-liked, telegenic moderate candidate.
Macron’s take: In an interview yesterday, Macron took an unexpected question on Riner and said he was happy “committed citizens” like Riner are contributing to the debate. A person close to Macron said privately the situation had him “dying of laughter” at the idea of a “friendly and very popular guy” taking down struggling centrists and conservatives he doesn’t like.
GENERAL STRIKE: Tomorrow, Spain will hold its first general strike in 14 years, over the housing and cost of living crises. While the political right sees it as part of the left’s mobilization effort in the run-up to the Nov. 29 election, Spaniards are split: A 40dB poll for El País shows about 46% support it and about 49% do not. THE ABASCAL SHOW: Far-right Vox leader Santiago Abascal appeared on a left-leaning show on public broadcaster TVE last night and came out of it looking strong. The studio audience, which usually leans left, was packed with Vox sympathizers selected by an agency the party itself chose.
ARMS TO UKRAINE: Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto will brief the parliament’s intelligence committee this afternoon on Italy’s latest Ukraine arms package amid a coalition clash over further military support. Deputy PM Matteo Salvini’s right-wing populist Lega has been challenging PM Giorgia Meloni’s continued backing of Kyiv.
FORT TRUMP: The Pentagon is preparing recommendations for President Donald Trump on whether to approve Poland’s long-sought permanent U.S. military base. Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz will meet Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth this afternoon, and Warsaw is hoping for a decision by year’s end.
NO ON NICOTINE: EU finance ministers failed to agree on a watered-down EU tobacco tax law, despite a last-ditch compromise attracting near-unanimous support. With Finland and Sweden settling their dispute with a compromise rate, Malta is the only country holding out against the proposed text.
MARCH ON: Poland’s annual nationalist Independence March will go ahead in Warsaw tomorrow under heightened security following Saturday’s deadly Kraków shooting. While President Karol Nawrocki will attend alongside leaders of rival right-wing parties, their newfound solidarity has yet to develop into a broader political alliance ahead of next year’s election.
COURT BREAKTHROUGH: Tusk declared a “new era” for Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal today, signaling his government is ready to recognize the court’s work after more than two years of disputing its legitimacy. The shift follows a move by newly appointed judges to suspend the tribunal’s nationalist-linked leadership. But suspended chiefs, backed by Nawrocki, still insist they’re in charge. Next Tuesday, judges will consider requests to lift their immunity from prosecution.
TALKS BEGIN: European representatives in Abu Dhabi today agreed to review the continent’s overarching security arrangements with the U.S. to minimize tensions between Russia and NATO allies. According to two near-identical statements — one from U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and another from the European Council — they said it is “essential” to address “post-war security concerns” and reduce “the risk of conflict” in the region.
SURPRISE VISIT: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet Danish PM Mette Frederiksen in Copenhagen today — two weeks after Norwegian and Finnish leaders spoke to Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Alongside other Nordic leaders, they will discuss “military support for Ukraine and security in Europe,” as well as Kyiv’s “urgent need for air defense and protection of its energy sector,” the Danish government said.
COP CONSENSUS: The EU will sign a pledge to raise the share of electricity in global energy consumption to 35% by 2035 from 20% now at the U.N. climate conference, three diplomats told POLITICO. Though the bloc was initially divided over the voluntary goal, the diplomats, who were granted anonymity to disclose details, said member countries had now reached consensus.
BRACE FOR IMPACT: The Portuguese government this morning declared a nationwide alert and urged nonessential workers to shelter at home ahead of Storm Charles’ expected arrival Wednesday. Torrential rain and flooding are forecast to hit the same coastlines battered by devastating storms earlier this year.
EXPECT: An easy evening commute, but prep ahead for suspensions on tram lines 92 and 93 tomorrow morning for Armistice Day.
With our focus on the East Med, today’s recommendations are from Greece and Turkey.
READ THIS: A taste of the Garip (Strange) movement in Turkish poetry with the complete works of Orhan Veli Kanık.
WATCH THIS: Head to your preferred streamer for master director Theodoros Angelopoulos’ “The Travelling Players.”
LEFT IN THE LURCH? HEAD TO THIS: Brussels Art Film Festival starts today at Palace, with opening documentary “Days of Wonder” followed by DJ Rokia Bamba at the bar.
IMO: People ordering in person should take priority over delivery orders. The other day, I waited 25 minutes for my kebab even though I was the only customer in the shop. The poor guys were swamped with dozens of UberEats orders they had to fill before mine! — Sonja Rijnen, newsroom coordinator
TALK TO PLAYBOOK: Disagree? Email us at [email protected] to share your Brussels takes.
POWER PRIVILEGE: Electricity first came to Cyprus in 1903, when the island was under British rule. With power mainly reserved for colonial administration buildings, much of the country remained in the dark until a central electricity authority was established in 1952. A notable exception was Kakopetria, where carpenter-turned-electrician Christos Vasileiou built a makeshift hydroelectric station that turned the remote mountain town into an unlikely model of modernity in 1927.
Playbook is brought to you by POLITICO’s Capitals team: Leyla Aksu, Nacho Alarcón, James Angelos, Joshua Berlinger, Bartosz Brzeziński, Clea Caulcutt, Stephan Faris, Victor Goury-Laffont, Aitor Hernández-Morales, Giorgio Leali, Veronika Melkozerova, Christian Oliver, Sonja Rijnen, Hannah Roberts, Tim Ross, Marion Solletty, Nektaria Stamouli, Hans von der Burchard, Katie Westwood, and producer Aoife Kootsookos.
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