Gregor Chisholm: Blue Jays off-season guide: free-agent targets, trade chips and the lockout factor - Toronto Star

George Springer, Shane Bieber will be among the free agents available with a roster freeze looming.

Teruaki Sato, available via Japanese baseball’s posting system with MLB, could be a good fit for several MLB teams, including the Blue Jays.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on X: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca.

The Blue Jays have no idea what the economic landscape of Major League Baseball will look like whenever the current labour dispute with the players’ union comes to an end.

The owners seem intent on adding a salary cap, while the players remain vehemently opposed. A lack of progress in recent talks all but guarantees a lockout when the current collective agreement expires on Dec. 1.

Jays president Mark Shapiro is on record saying it will be business as usual for the Jays, at least for now. That suggests they will continue their free-spending ways for the next month before any new rules go into effect.

The Jays won’t be alone. A flurry of activity is expected as top free agents look for new homes and teams attempt to finalize trades before a roster freeze goes into effect.

OF Myles Straw ($8-million U.S. club option, $1.75-million buyout)

INF Ernie Clement ($7.6 million), RHP José Soriano ($5.6 million), RHP Louis Varland ($3.8 million), INF Josh Smith ($3.7 million), OF Nathan Lukes ($2.1 million), RHP Spencer Arrighetti ($1.9 million), RHP Bowden Francis ($1.3 million), INF/OF Davis Schneider ($1.3 million)

The Jays have about $55 million coming off the books in pending free agents. Add the salaries of Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho and Jeff Hoffman who were moved at the Aug. 2 trade deadline and that figure grows to more than $100 million.

A chunk of that will be redirected to players due raises. Dylan Cease, Andrés Giménez, Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Alejandro Kirk are among those who will see a bump in pay of at least $4 million. The Jays also still owe Hoffman $3.75 million in 2027.

Last year, they operated with a payroll of about $284 million. They are currently hovering around $230 million before arbitration cases are factored in. Shapiro previously said the Jays expect to have similar resources next year, which should leave them with $50 million plus to spend on 2027 payroll.

Middle-of-the-order bat: The Jays aren’t going anywhere until they fix their lineup. No team hit fewer homers or scored fewer runs than the Jays this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s regression played a big role, but even if he had performed well there wasn’t nearly enough offence elsewhere in the lineup. They need to do something big and signing Seiya Suzuki (.823 OPS in five years with the Chicago Cubs) or Teruaki Sato (available through Japan’s posting system after a Triple Crown season with the Hanshin Tigers) would certainly qualify.

Second base: Clement is the incumbent and a fan favourite, but he also hit .203 with a .493 on-base-plus-slugging percentage after the all-star break. Free agents Brandon Lowe and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are possible upgrades, while Arizona Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte is among those who could be available through trade.

Starting pitching: The Jays are already in good shape with Cease, Soriano, Trey Yesavage and Ponce as projected starters. They also have Spencer Miles, Arrighetti and  Bloss around for depth while José Berrios and Francis will eventually return from Tommy John surgery. Despite the long list, they would benefit from adding at least one more proven arm. Re-signing Bieber to a one-year deal would make sense.

1B/3B Sean Keys: The Jays need power and Keys has plenty of it with 28 homers in 100 minor-league games this past season. The issue is that the Jays have nowhere to put him. Guerrero has first base locked down for the next decade, while Okamoto is signed for another three seasons to play third. With Anthony Santander a candidate to start at designated hitter, Keys appears to be the odd man out.

Kirk/Brandon Valenzuela: Teams are always looking for catching help and the Jays have two starting-calibre options. If the Jays are involved in a blockbuster trade this winter, they might have no choice but to include one of their two backstops. That seems unlikely, however, because keeping both would ensure the position remains a strength.

Lukes: The outfielder has been underrated the last two seasons. He isn’t flashy, but he gets the job done with a .722 OPS dating back to the start of 2025, which is above league average. However, with Addison Barger set to return to right field next year and the Jays likely reserving left for a middle-of-the-order bat, Lukes would be relegated to part-time duty. There are others who could fill a bench role, which means they might look to deal him this winter. Lukes wouldn’t fetch a lot in return, but he could be used to add another arm for the bullpen.

Nov. 1: Gold Glove winners are announced

Nov. 2: Free agents become available to sign with any team at 5 p.m. ET

Nov. 9-12: Baseball Writers’ Association of America Awards week: rookie of the year, manager of the year, reliever of the year, Cy Young and MVP

Nov. 10-12: General managers meetings in Las Vegas

Nov. 17-19: Owners meetings in New York City

Nov. 17: Last day to protect prospects from Rule 5 draft

Nov. 17: Deadline for players to accept qualifying offers (4 p.m. ET)

Nov. 20: Non-tender deadline for arbitration eligible players (8 p.m. ET)

Dec. 1: Collective agreement expires (11:59 p.m. ET)

Dec. 6: Hall of Fame contemporary ballot. This year’s committee will be voting on managers, executives and umpires whose greatest contributions came in the 1980s or later.

Dec. 7-9: Annual winter meetings (expected to be cancelled)

Jan. 8: Salary arbitration exchange date (likely to be pushed back)

Feb. 9: Jays’ first game of spring training

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Opinion articles are based on the author’s interpretations and judgments of facts, data and events. More details

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on X: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca.