Here's what SP+ predicts for Florida's SEC opener at Auburn - Gators Wire
Florida football has won its first two games of the 2026 campaign, earning victories over FAU and Campbell for a cumulative score of 118-24 against its early-season foes. Now the real challenge begins as the Gators open up their Southeastern Conference schedule against Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium next Saturday.
Ahead of the first SEC battle of the fall, ESPN's Bill Connelly released predictions for the Week 3 slate using his SP+ metric, with Florida holding a modest edge over its intraconference battle at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday.
Connelly's data gives the Gators a 63% chance of winning on Saturday night, with the spread set at minus-2.5 and an over/under of 53.5. SP+ projects a final score of 26-21 with a projected margin of victory set at 5.3. That gives a spread differential of 2.8 and an over/under differential of minus-7.
After Week 2's action, Florida is now ranked 13th overall with a 19.4 SP+ rating, putting them between No. 12 USC (19.5) and No. 14 Oklahoma (19.2). The Gators' offensive SP+ of 33.4 ranks 21st in the nation, while the defense checks in at 10th with a 14.5 rating, and the special teams land at 13th with a 0.5 rating.
Florida and Auburn face off on Saturday, Sept. 19, with kickoff slated for 7 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
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