Historic El Nino now a 75% possibility

The US weather agency said on Thursday that the El Nino pattern in the Pacific was strengthening and there was a 75% chance it would reach "historic" intensity this year, as the climate phenomenon drove tropical sea region temperatures to record highs. Forecasters have been tracking an exceptional El Nino this year. Scientists are increasingly confident this "super" El Nino could exceed any in the modern era, with potentially damaging knock-on impacts around the globe. In its latest El Nino assessment, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the odds of a history-making event had increased since its last report a month ago. "During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Nino events dating back to 1950," it said. Last month, confidence was 69%. El Nino is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle that occurs every two to seven years and is characterised by above average ocean temperatures across the Pacific. Sea surface temperatures have reached record highs in the tropical Pacific in recent months and NOAA said some areas of deeper water were more than 10C above average. El Nino episodes alter winds, air pressure and cloud patterns, reshaping weather and raising the odds of extreme conditions thousands of miles away.