How Early Voting Surged in Senate Battlegrounds Compared to Prior Midterms - Newsweek
Millions of Americans have already cast their ballots in states hosting some of the country's most closely watched U.S. Senate contests, with early voting in several battlegrounds running well ahead of the levels recorded during the 2022 midterms.
The figures offer an early indication of unusually heavy voter engagement in a midterm election that will decide control of Congress after two years of Republican majority control, alongside President Donald Trump in the White House.
However, early voter totals are not necessarily a predictor of the eventual result, nor do they automatically indicate that overall turnout will exceed previous elections.
In North Carolina, more than 2.8 million early ballots are estimated to have been cast, compared to roughly 2.15 million during the comparable period four years ago. Michigan has also recorded more than 2.3 million early votes as of Monday.
The increase extends across several states that could help determine which party controls the Senate come January, according to analysis of early voting figures compiled by election officials and the University of Florida Election Lab.
Newsweek reached out to UF Election Lab for comment Monday afternoon.
Data from UF Election Lab for 2022 and 2026 shows a marked rise in early voting numbers across Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, with final numbers for this year's election not yet delivered.
The increases are particularly pronounced in several states with competitive Senate races.
In North Carolina, figures rose roughly 31 percent from 2022 to 2026, while Iowa and Ohio also saw substantial increases.
Georgia surpassed its previous record for in-person midterm voting, passing over 2.8 million in the past few weeks. In 2018, Georgia saw around 2.1 million early voters.
Early voting reached a national midterm record, with the 52.7 million ballots cast before Election Day, surpassing the previous high of 45.9 million set in 2022.
As Newsweek previously reported, registered Democrats lead among early voters in the available data, although only slightly more than half of states report registration breakdowns, limiting how far the figures can be treated as representative of nationwide trends.
In some cases, an increase in early voting comes down to a change in how elections are carried out, particularly in Michigan. A 2022 state constitutional amendment altered the system so that in-person early voting was allowed, with the 2018 figures coming from returned mail ballots.
Voting behavior also changed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, with voting before Election Day becoming far more commonplace that year as some voters sought to avoid long lines or big crowds.
While those concerns have generally faded in 2026, higher voter engagement ahead of Election Day could be down, in part, to enthusiasm around high-profile races. However, the UF Election Lab does caution that more early voters does not necessarily mean more votes will be cast overall.
Charles Stewart III, Director of MIT Election Data and Science Lab, told Newsweek that the surge was likely a combination of two related things: "The greater interest in the election among Democrats (or voters who plan to vote for Democrats) and the resources campaigns have to turn out supporters."
"Itβs underappreciated that much of the money used in campaigns goes to the βground game,β and the campaigns have lots of money, and it canβt all go to advertising," he said. "Getting your supporters to vote early locks up those votes and means you have an easier time of doing the more difficult job of getting people to the polls on election day."
Stewart said that he didn't imagine the early voting would have an impact on the results as he believes anyone voting early would otherwise have voted on Election Day.
"In any event, itβs probably all part of the same story, which is that this is likely to be a good Democratic year, and itβs starting a little earlier than it has in previous elections," he said.
Michael McDonald, University of Florida political science professor who runs the Election Lab, issued that warning in comments to Time.
"Once you start seeing consistency across multiple days of voting and across multiple states, it starts giving us more confidence that whatever we're seeing in terms of relative engagement, that's likely going to carry through to election day," he said.
Trump has often cast doubt on early voting, particularly by mail, and has urged voters to head to the polls in person on Election Day.
Most early voting has wrapped up as of Monday, with mail ballots continuing to arrive at their respective elections offices. Some states allow those ballots to be counted for a few days after polls close.
This means the picture could shift in the coming days as states publish more current information on how residents voted.
Newsweekβs reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Edward T. Cummins
