How El Nino and summer heatwaves have starved our Christmas trees and led to a shortage - The Independent

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The Christmas adverts are out, the nights are drawing in, and the more organised among us might be starting to think about preparing for the festive season. But if you’re already planning the perfect Yuletide tableau for your living room, brace yourself for some not particularly glad tidings, because this year could see Britain beset by a Christmas tree shortage.

A chunky evergreen conifer, decked out in a mix of tasteful baubles, family heirlooms or kids’ art and craft projects, has been a mainstay of Christmas in the UK ever since the Victorian era, when Queen Victoria’s husband, Prince Albert, kickstarted the trend, bringing the tradition over from his native Germany (it had previously enjoyed a brief vogue when King George III’s wife Queen Charlotte – yes, the one who’s been reimagined in high camp period drama style in Bridgerton and its spin-offs – had one installed in her palace).

But this summer’s spate of back-to-back heatwaves, which led the Met Office to declare it the hottest summer on record, has wreaked havoc on the nation’s firs, meaning that we could be looking at a significantly depleted supply. Speaking to The Telegraph, Oliver Combe, who has worked at York Christmas Trees for 40 years, said that this had been a “tough year”, and “for the first time ever we have had losses in what we planted last year”.

Young saplings are particularly vulnerable to extremes in weather, as they have shallow, less established roots compared to older trees. James Wallis of Sutton Hall Farm near Lewes told the BBC that around 20,000 trees that he and his wife and co-founder Ruth planted two years ago had died out “in a single block”. Ruth, meanwhile, told the broadcaster that “the financial consequences are significant”, with this year’s harvest predicted to be about 30 per cent less than last year; a late frost in May also added to their problems.

Dry weather and drought haven’t helped matters either, making it harder for the trees to absorb the nutrients that they need to grow and thrive – so even the trees that have managed to make it through the summer might look a bit, shall we say, lacklustre. How lovely are your branches, as the old “Christmas Tree” carol goes? “Not very,” could be the bleak answer in 2026.

“The weather pattern we’ve seen transitioning through the year has dealt a double blow to growers,” explains Peter Bradley, garden expert and director at Mid Ulster Garden Centre in Maghera, Northern Ireland. “Summer heatwaves with incredibly prolonged dry spells placed drought stress on Christmas tree growers,” he adds, resulting in needle desiccation and stunted tree growth, as it’s harder for nutrients to move through the soil towards the roots when there’s not enough moisture.

The dry weather is particularly troubling for the Christmas tree industry because most farmers in the UK do not use commercial irrigation methods, and instead rely on rainfall and natural moisture in the soil.

But what about the recent rainy spells? Could they have improved things at the last minute? Absolutely not – in fact, they may well have just made a bad situation worse. “The El Nino weather pattern we’ve seen this autumn has brought storms, excessive rainfall and gale-force winds right before harvest,” Bradley says. That’s precisely the time you don’t want things to get all soggy. “Waterlogged ground creates a nightmare for harvesting machinery, while saturated root systems weaken trees and leave foliage vulnerable to needle drop and fungal damage before they reach consumers.”

It’s also worth bearing in mind that this isn’t the type of crisis that has a quick fix – instead, it could cast a long shadow over Christmases to come. “A classic Nordmann Fir takes between eight and 10 years to reach six or seven feet, the most popular size,” Bradley says. That means, he adds, that “this year’s harvestable crop has had to weather a decade of increasingly volatile UK climate shifts” before it faced the soaring temperatures of summer 2026.

This year’s stunted, stressed-out cohort of young trees, then, could also cause problems for festive shoppers well into the 2030s, as extreme weather conditions continue. They almost certainly won’t look as luxuriant as the trees we grew up with; instead, they may appear gappy and sparse.

To try to adapt to this new normal of climate uncertainty, some farmers are starting to plant their trees in the autumn rather than late winter or early spring, allowing them to put down roots before dry weather and hot temperatures come in summer. Others are investing in irrigation systems to keep their precious charges hydrated.

News of a potential shortage might prompt shoppers to start stressing about the prospect of a sad, tree-free Christmas. But this is definitely one area where panic buying just doesn’t make sense – pick up a Christmas tree now and even the most verdant model will likely be looking worse for wear by 25 December. Speaking to The Telegraph, tree expert Combe suggested that we should postpone purchasing one until the beginning of December at least, by which time trees will have faced a few frosts, helping them to last longer after being cut.

And “when you do buy”, Bradley says, “treat your tree like fresh cut flowers and trim half an inch off the base before mounting it, keep the stand filled with water and keep it as far away from radiators as possible”.

Try to remember, too, that the joy of a real tree is in its individuality – gappy branches and all. Otherwise, there’s always the lopsided artificial job that’s lurking in your parents’ attic…