How Houthi capture of Bab el-Mandeb 3,000 km away could hit India hard

An 18-hour blitzkrieg along Yemen's Red Sea coast has put the Iranian-backed Shia militant group Ansar Allah, better known as the Houthis, on the cusp of controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow strip of water connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and, beyond it, the Arabian Sea. Control of the 29-km-wide passage through the Houthis could give Tehran the ability to replicate its Strait of Hormuz strategy, and effectively blockade Gulf energy exports to the Indian Ocean.

For India, the stakes are particularly high. India relies on Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint, to not only import crude and other petrochemicals, but to also reach Europe. Ships ferrying refined fuel, pharmaceuticals, machinery and other commodities routinely use the strait to reach large European ports like Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Marseille in France.

As such, the capture of the Bab el-Mandeb, whose name translates roughly to "Gate of Tears", could therefore choke vital oil supplies to India, which has already seen a significant disruption in petroleum shipments from the Gulf since the start of the US-Iran war, while simultaneously making its exports far less competitive globally. After the Houthis attacked the UAE and Saudi Arabia in 2022, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb declined. Energy firms like BP and shipping giants such as Maersk began diverting vessels to alternative routes. (Image: US Energy Information Administration) WHAT IS THE BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT AND WHY IS IT SO IMPORTANTThe Bab el-Mandeb is a 29 kilometre long narrow strip of water on the Red Sea between Yemen and Djibouti. It is a vital global transit gateway, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean and beyond via the Suez Canal.

Bab el-Mandeb has always been an important global transit route for oil and other petroleum resources. Saudi oil, offloaded from ports on its western coast, including Jeddah and Yanbu onto tankers, made its way to Asian markets through the Bab-el Mandeb, into the Arabian Sea.

At the same time, cargoes from Asian exporters bound for European and North African markets also utilise the Bab el-Mandeb to reach and offload at ports along the Mediterranean Sea, or go through the Straits of Gibraltar and reach Atlantic ports like Rotterdam. For instance, Indian refiners, which supplied about 60% of Europe's diesel requirements in August transited mostly through the Bab-el-Mandeb.

The importance of the Gate of Tears increased manifold after the outbreak of the US-Iran War. After Tehran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the most direct route to Asia for Gulf exporters, the latter turned to the Bab el-Mandeb route. Extensive overland routes, such as the 1,200-km-long East-West Crude Oil Pipeline were utilised to bypass the Hormuz blockade, transporting oil to ports along Saudi Arabia's west coast.

It is this vital route that is under threat from the Houthis, who are on the cusp of dominating its approaches along Yemen's Red Sea coast. An LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) tanker sails in waters north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. (Image: AP) HOW DID THE HOUTHIS COME TO DOMINATE BAB EL-MANDEB?

Ansar Allah, officially known as the Houthis, have been fighting for control in Yemen for more than a decade. After seizing Sanaa in 2014, the Iran-backed movement consolidated control over much of northern and western Yemen, including a substantial stretch of the Red Sea coast.

Their advance prompted a Saudi-led military intervention in 2015, but the coalition failed to dislodge them. The conflict eventually settled into a prolonged stalemate, with Saudi Arabia reducing its direct military involvement after years of airstrikes and supporting forces opposed to the Houthis. A UN-brokered truce in 2022 further reduced fighting, although it never produced a lasting political settlement.

The popular image of the Houthis may still be that of flip flop-wearing, Kalashnikov-wielding militiamen riding Toyota pickups overloaded with machine guns and rocket launchers. But Ansar Allah has evolved into a formidable military force, possessing ballistic missiles, drones and other increasingly sophisticated weaponry, thanks in part to continuous Iranian aid.

It is this ability that was put to good use by the Houthis in their latest blitzkrieg, which, according to local media reports, lasted little more than 18 hours.

News Agency Reuters reported on Friday that Houthi forces had seized the strategic port city of Mocha on the Red Sea Coast, and were advancing towards the Hanish islands. The offensive was reportedly aided by Tehran, which promised additional aid and deputed Iranian officers to Yemen. Note however, Iran has publicly denied the same.

The Associated Press separately reported that the Houthis had captured Mayun (Perim) Island, which sits inside Bab el-Mandeb, while The Financial Times reported that the Houthis' had reached the islands of Zuqar and Hanish.

The scale of the gains, which effectively put the entirety of Yemen's Red Sea coast under Ansar Allah control, led a Houthi senior official, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, declaring to media outlets, "We have taken control of Bab el-Mandeb." Houthi fighters gesture as they celebrate in front of the Security Directorate building in Hays, Yemen on September 10. (Image: Reuters) advertisementSO WHAT HAPPENS IF THE BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT IS CLOSED?Reuters reported a Houthi spokesperson as saying on Thursday that freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would remain "safe and uninterrupted" operations are limited to specific targets.

That being, Ansar Allah has had a blockade against all Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb in force since July. Its recent gains on the Red Sea Coast would make enforcing that blockade exponentially easier.

Given the highly risk-adverse nature of maritime insurers, it only takes a couple of ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb being struck for insurance rates to skyrocket, and causing shipping companies to avoid the waterway like a plague. That was made abundantly visible when a spate of Houthi strikes targeting commercial shipping in late 2023 led to at least 2,000 ships avoiding the Suez Canal and instead sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, delaying critical imports to India. (Image: ITGD)

Should Houthi attacks and soaring maritime insurance costs make the Bab el-Mandeb off-limits, Saudi Arabia could suffer the biggest pain. Asia is its main crude market, with China, Japan, South Korea and India among its biggest buyers. Saudi cargoes from Yanbu would have to sail north through the Suez Canal, cross the Mediterranean and pass Gibraltar before heading around the Cape of Good Hope to reach Asia, a voyage that can stretch from about 14,200 km to 27,200 km from Yanbu to Kagoshima.

That detour could add weeks to delivery times and sharply raise fuel and freight costs, turning a vital shortcut into a logistical nightmare.HOW CHOKING BAB EL-MANDEB COULD HIT INDIA

India would also be affected. The most obvious way is the global rise in energy prices. The amount of oil flowing through it has already decreased from 9.3 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products in 2023 to just around 4.2 million bpd in the first half of 2025.

News of the Houthi blitz sent the price of Brent Crude above $100 a barrel, before resting at around $99. A continued closure of Bab el-Mandeb would continue to send energy prices higher. New Delhi might secure alternative supplies from other sources like Russia, but it will still have to deal with higher energy prices.

Then there's the fact that the Bab el-Mandeb is also a vital route for Indian exports and imports going to and from Europe. India’s refining sector exports large volumes of diesel, aviation turbine fuel and other petroleum products to Europe through the Red Sea, while container traffic carrying pharmaceuticals, textiles, machinery and engineering products also depends heavily on the Suez route.

The only other alternative is to go around the African continent. Such a route would increase the distance between Mumbai and Rotterdam from about 15,700 km to 23,000 km. This detour, which would dramatically raise the logistical cost of every kilo of a commodity headed to Europe, could make Indian exports much less competitive, while increasing the cost of critical imports.

For India, therefore, the Bab el-Mandeb is far more than a distant maritime chokepoint 3,000 km away. A prolonged disruption could simultaneously drive up energy costs, raise freight bills and make Indian goods less competitive in European markets. With the Strait of Hormuz already under strain, a crisis at the Gate of Tears could leave New Delhi facing pressure on both its energy security and export economy.- EndsPublished By: Shounak SanyalPublished On: Sep 12, 2026 06:30 IST