How Key Midterm Races Changed During Donald Trump’s 30-Day Campaign Blitz - Newsweek

President Donald Trump’s October campaign blitz produced no uniform Republican improvement in polling or prediction markets across eight Senate races where he stumped for GOP candidates, according to a Newsweek analysis.

The analysis covers Senate contests in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina. All were stops on Trump’s campaign tour, with six of the closest potentially helping decide control of the Senate.

Newsweek compared Silver Bulletin polling averages on October 1, on the date of Trump’s first rally in each state and on October 28, the model’s latest update available at the time of writing. Across the full period, four races moved toward Republicans and four toward Democrats.

For prediction markets, Newsweek recorded displayed Kalshi and Polymarket prices on October 1, on the date of Trump’s first October rally in each state and on October 29. Market prices change continuously and reflect traders’ assessments rather than projected vote shares.

Republican candidates’ displayed market prices fell in six of the eight states on at least one of the prediction markets, ranging from marginal declines to double-digit drops in Kansas and Ohio.

From Texas to New York, Trump has raced across the electoral map in an almost-daily series of rallies, moving from airport hangars and civic centers to arenas in states Republicans once expected to hold comfortably.

And the president has done so with a consistent message for his supporters: "Pretend I am on the ballot."

The Senate-focused stops capture an unusually broad battlefield: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Texas are all rated tossups by Cook Political Report. The campaigns in Georgia and North Carolina show how far Democrats have pushed into the GOP’s defensive map.

Speaking to Newsweek, experts and Republican campaign officials said the rallies may be more effective at mobilizing existing supporters than persuading undecided voters. However, they differed over how much influence Trump still exerts on individual races.

"President Trump is the greatest force for turnout in American politics, and that's why he is barnstorming the country and driving voters to the polls in the final stretch." Natalie Baldassarre, the Republican National Committee’s national press secretary, told Newsweek in an emailed statement. "The momentum is on our side, and Republicans are ready to fight, defy history, and protect our majorities."

Newsweek also emailed the White House, the Democratic National Committee, and every campaign included in the analysis for further comment on Thursday morning and is awaiting responses.

It comes just days before the November 3 elections, when the president’s party faces the historical headwinds that typically make midterms a referendum on the administration in power.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Newsweek that Trump’s influence as a campaigner was probably waning. However, he added that the effect of individual appearances was difficult to isolate.

"He has been very active on the trail, and I don’t know if you’re seeing a whole lot of poll movement," Kondik said.

Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, said rallies were better suited to mobilizing committed partisans than converting undecided voters.

"The evidence is mixed at best about the impact of Trump’s influence on the campaign trail in congressional races," Panagopoulos told Newsweek.

Trump will visit Florida today for the second time in a week. State GOP chairman Evan Power told Newsweek in a phone call that the president can "turn out voters like no one else" and that Republicans remain confident about their position in the state.

But the Florida Democratic Party countered that the repeat visit showed Republicans were worried about the state. Its chair Nikki Fried told Newsweek in an emailed statement that it was "a last-ditch effort to prop up flailing Republican campaigns."

Trump promised to campaign in roughly 35 competitive places and has repeatedly implored voters to approach November as if his own political future were at stake.

The most favorable movement for the GOP in Newsweek's analysis came in Ohio. Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown, a longtime advocate for organized labor and manufacturing, saw his advantage over Republican incumbent Jon Husted, the former lieutenant governor appointed to replace Vice President JD Vance, narrow from 4.3 points to 3 points.

In Texas, GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton cut Democrat James Talarico's lead, a former middle-school teacher and current state representative, from 3.4 to 2.5 points.

Former television anchor and Republican Representative Ashley Hinson reduced Democrat Josh Turek’s Iowa edge from 1.6 to 0.8 points.

Turek, a state lawmaker, won two Paralympic gold medals in wheelchair basketball before entering politics.

Former FBI agent and House Intelligence Committee chairman Mike Rogers made the smallest Republican gain. He trimmed the Michigan margin held by public-health specialist and former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed by four-tenths of a point.

In Kansas, Hamilton, the pastor of one of the country’s largest United Methodist congregations, moved from trailing Marshall, who practiced as an obstetrician for more than 25 years before entering Congress, by three-tenths of a point to leading by eight-tenths.

Former congresswoman and tribal judge Peltola is the first Alaska Native elected to Congress. She expanded her Alaska advantage over Sullivan, a Marine Corps Reserve colonel and former state attorney general, who has represented the state in the Senate since 2015, from 2.6 to 3.6 points.

Former Governor and Attorney General Roy Cooper added six-tenths to his substantial North Carolina lead over Michael Whatley, an attorney and former chairman of both the Republican National Committee and the state GOP.

In Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff, a former investigative-documentary producer seeking a second term, widened his advantage over Representative Mike Collins by 2 points. The latter entered politics after building a trucking business and has represented the state’s 10th Congressional District since 2023.

None of those shifts proves that a rally helped or hurt either candidate. Advertising, fundraising, new surveys, early voting and other developments unfolded alongside the presidential travel.

The largest occurred in Kansas, where Marshall fell from 70.3 percent to 56 percent on Kalshi and from 72 percent to 56 percent on Polymarket.

In Ohio, Husted dropped by 8.6 percentage points on Kalshi and 10 points on Polymarket, despite gaining 1.3 points in the polling margin.

In Texas and Iowa, Paxton and Hinson each gained modestly in their polling margins. However, Paxton lost about 6 points on both markets, while Hinson fell by 6 points on Kalshi and 4 points on Polymarket.

In Alaska, Sullivan gained 1.3 points on Kalshi and 2 points on Polymarket, even as Peltola extended her polling advantage by 1 point.

Michigan was broadly stable: Polymarket ended where it began, while Kalshi moved 1.8 points toward Rogers.

Ossoff and Cooper started above 93 percent on both platforms, limiting the potential for further gains.

Prediction markets incorporate polling, fundraising, advertising and early-voting information, so their movement reflects changing trader sentiment rather than proof that Trump’s rallies caused Republican prices to fall.

Newsweek’s analysis cannot show whether Trump’s appearances changed minds. Election Day will provide a clearer test of whether asking supporters to treat the midterms as his own contest helped Republicans overcome the historical penalty facing the party in power.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

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