Hurricane forecasters watch system in the Gulf. Will it impact the US? - USA Today

The Atlantic hurricane season's long stretch of unremarkable activity may be at an end.

Forecasters have been keeping their eyes on a system for days as it started forming in the Gulf of America, formerly known as Gulf of Mexico.

By Monday afternoon, Oct. 5, the National Hurricane Center had dialed up their development chances to 80% (which is in the high category) of a tropical depression or named storm forming within the next week over the southern or central Gulf, where warm waters have forecasters keeping watch.

"A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms," NOAA's National Hurricane Center said in an Oct. 5 online forecast bulletin.

"Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week," the hurricane center bulletin said.

Heavy rainfall not associated with the possible tropical system has already triggered flash flooding across parts of the Gulf Coast this past weekend.

The system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward.

"It is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of potential wind and storm surge impacts along the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system," the hurricane center said in an online bulletin from 2 pm. ET on Monday.

Regardless of tropical development, moisture is expected to spread across parts of the Gulf Coast by the end of this week, producing additional rounds of drenching showers and thunderstorms, according to forecasters at AccuWeather. With the ground already saturated in some areas, additional heavy rain could quickly trigger renewed flash flooding.

"This would add to the flood threat from southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle westward along Interstate 10 to southeast Louisiana," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said in an online forecast.

If its winds reach tropical storm strength of 39 mph – along with other factors – it will become a named tropical storm. The next name on the 2026 hurricane list is Isaias, pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs.

Well before the tropical storm's formation, the Southeast will see ongoing rounds of heavy, flooding downpours through most of the week as tropical moisture interacts with a stalled front: "A slow moving front will be the focus area for heavy to excessive rainfall and a threat for flash/urban flooding across parts of the Gulf Coast into central/northern Florida early this week," the National Weather Service said.

This year, any possible tropical system trying to spin up in the Bay of Campeche will contend with an increasingly potent El Niño, which has so far limited storm activity – both by wiping out nascent storm systems and reducing the lifespans of others.

Although eight named storms have formed, from Arthur to Hanna, the Atlantic basin has had no hurricanes this year.