In US, Jaishankar warns of ‘major food crisis’ in coming months amid Ukraine, Iran conflicts - The Indian Express

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has warned of a “major food crisis” in the coming months amid fertiliser shortages and disruptions to grain shipments caused by the Ukraine and Iran-Gulf conflicts. He also said the combined impact of energy, food, fertiliser and financial pressures is proving “very very stressful” for Global South economies.

Speaking at a conversation hosted by the Asia Society in New York Monday, Jaishankar said the Ukraine war and the Iran-Gulf conflict had had a “devastating impact” on Global South economies, news agency PTI reported.

“… this is a big concern for us, which is, if you look at these two conflicts, the Ukraine and now the Iran-Gulf conflict, they’ve actually had a devastating impact on Global South economies,” he said.

Jaishankar said there was particular concern over the energy situation as the “market is very tight”. He also warned that political decisions affecting oil supplies could further complicate the situation and drive up prices at a time when countries should be trying to stabilise them.

“So part of it is actually the security of oil supplies, and part of it is the politics of oil supplies, and they are feeding into each other, and they are creating a double crisis or an aggravated crisis,” he said.

Independent indicators behind the warnings of a coming food crisis, and what it would mean for the Global South.

Rise from July; up 2.5% on a year earlier

The index is about 17% below its all-time peak. Even so, 2026’s cereal harvest would still be the second-largest on record.

Which economies are most exposed to global supply shocks?

Brazil and Argentina are among the world’s most fertiliser import-dependent farm economies (IFPRI).

FAO names import-dependent Africa; UNCTAD flags Sudan, Tanzania and Somalia for Gulf fertiliser dependence and tight fiscal space.

FAO names import-dependent parts of the Middle East; the region relies heavily on imported wheat.

India’s nitrogen fertiliser imports jumped 52% as Gulf gas shortages hit domestic output (IFPRI).

FAO names import-dependent countries in Asia as most exposed to fertiliser disruption.

Import dependence + higher costs + limited fiscal space can amplify external shocks.

Lit icons show exposure channels named for each region by FAO, UNCTAD or IFPRI; not a ranking of countries. UNCTAD notes many developing economies face high debt burdens, limited fiscal space and rising borrowing costs. Countries around the Strait of Hormuz supply 13% of global nitrogen and 9% of phosphate fertiliser exports.

Prices, incomes and a country’s ability to pay for imports.

Can supplies and prices remain predictable?

Sudden shocks, such as economic or climate crises, or seasonal swings.

FAO also counts a fourth pillar, utilisation: whether people can make good use of food, which depends on nutrition, clean water and health.

“Fertilizers must be applied at specific moments in the crop cycle. If they do not arrive on time, yields are reduced, regardless of what happens later.”FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu

FAO warned on May 7, 2026 that the effects pass into the next harvests and could tighten food supplies into the second half of 2026 and 2027. Stages are illustrative; timing varies by crop and region.

What happens when fertiliser gets expensive?

UNCTAD: higher fertiliser costs influence planting decisions, including crop choice and total area planted, and also affect input use and yields.

Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), agencies. Map: Natural Earth.

Speaking on the global food situation, Jaishankar said some major grain exporters may not be able to send out shipments, particularly through the Black Sea. “We are today looking at a situation where some of the major grain exporters will not be able to send out their shipments, particularly out to the Black Sea,” he said.

He also said the world was facing significant fertiliser shortages because key producers were in West Asia and Russia and their production had been affected.

Jaishankar said the situation could worsen when combined with climate patterns such as a super El Niño. “There is going to be a major food crisis probably in the coming months,” he said.

He said the pressures were not limited to food and fertiliser supplies, with energy and finance also adding to the strain.

“So if you have energy as a big crunch, and then food and fertilisers on top of it, and finance because every time there’s a conflict, money moves towards safe harbours and away from the Global South, the net result of it has been really very very stressful,” he said.

Jaishankar said policymakers could not dismiss the wider consequences of their decisions by arguing that economic hardship elsewhere was unintended.

“Countries should not be so self-centred that you’re in your own world and take your decision and say, ‘Well, it was not my intention to make your life difficult’.”

He said “sound common sense” should ensure that the basic needs of countries were not neglected to the point of putting them in distress.

“And that is a concern that we have,” he said.

Jaishankar also warned that the energy crisis could contribute to political instability. “We have already seen it after the Ukraine war. We saw in our neighbourhood the direct result of that in political instability, and my fear is what is happening in Iran and the Gulf is going to feed, is going to aggravate,” he said.

He said some countries would continue to maintain their independence and autonomy despite the pressure created by global conflicts, while others could find it more difficult.

“Some others would find it harder to do so. So those of us who are autonomous, we’d like to see more of us who are autonomous. But it’s not a black and white scenario. It would depend on the issue and the stakes involved. There’ll be cases where countries would make adjustments. There’ll be cases where they would fight back,” he said.