India's GDP numbers sparked debate at home. Here's how the world reacted

India's 7.8% economic growth in the April-June quarter triggered a debate at home over the new GDP series and how the latest numbers should be interpreted. But outside India, the reaction has been increasingly positive, with several major global institutions raising their growth forecasts for the country.

India's real GDP grew 7.8% in the first quarter of FY27, compared with 6.9% in the same quarter a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

Since the GDP data was released, S&P Global Ratings, Fitch Ratings, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have all raised their FY27 growth forecasts for India. Moody's had already raised its forecast.

The revisions now put the forecasts of these global institutions between 6.9% and 7.1% for FY27.

S&P Global Ratings has raised its FY27 growth forecast for India to 7% from 6.6%. The ratings agency said stronger-than-expected growth in the June quarter was driven by robust industrial activity, healthy consumption, strong goods exports and accelerating government investment.

Fitch Ratings has raised its forecast to 6.9% from 6.4%. The agency said the Indian economy had shown resilience despite the shock from the US-Iran conflict and a deterioration in its terms of trade in the first half of 2026.

The ADB has also raised its FY27 growth forecast to 7% from 6.6%, according to its latest outlook.

The OECD has made the sharpest upward revision among the major institutions. It raised its forecast by 80 basis points to 7.1% from 6.3% earlier. It expects growth to moderate from 7.8% in FY26 to 7.1% in FY27 and 6.5% in FY28.

Moody's, meanwhile, raised its FY27 forecast to 7% from 6% last week. The ratings agency cited India's resilience amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and stronger domestic economic activity. WHAT ARE THESE AGENCIES SEEING?

A common thread in the revisions is that India's domestic economy has held up better than expected despite a difficult external environment.

The 7.8% June-quarter growth was supported by investment, consumption and industrial activity. Gross fixed capital formation grew 11.9% during the quarter, while private consumption rose 7.1% and manufacturing expanded 9.2%. These factors have helped global forecasters reassess the extent to which external shocks could slow India's economy.

S&P, for instance, specifically pointed to robust industrial activity, healthy consumption, strong goods exports and faster government investment when explaining its upgrade.

The OECD has also said India's growth has been supported by resilient domestic demand and government policies that cushioned households and businesses from the impact of higher energy prices. BUT THE GDP DEBATE HAS NOT GONE AWAY

The strong growth number has also led to questions in India over the new GDP series and the methodology behind the latest estimates.

MoSPI has defended the new series, saying it makes greater use of administrative and high-frequency data and incorporates methodological improvements. The ministry has also released additional information explaining the new GDP estimates following the release of the Q1 numbers.

The debate is therefore not simply about whether the economy grew. It is also about how the growth should be measured and interpreted under the new series.

That distinction matters because GDP estimates are revised as more data becomes available. Economists have also pointed out that the first estimate is not the final word on economic growth. GLOBAL OPTIMISM DOES NOT MEAN NO RISKS

The upward revisions also come with several warnings.

The OECD expects India's growth to slow in the second half of FY27 as reduced purchasing power weighs on demand. It sees growth moderating further to 6.5% in FY28.

S&P has also flagged weather-related risks, noting that below-normal cumulative rainfall could affect agricultural output and food inflation. It expects growth to ease in the second half of FY27 as some of the support from GST rationalisation and income-tax cuts fades.

Moody's has warned that higher global energy prices and El Nio-related food inflation could affect consumption and growth.

So, while the global growth outlook for India has improved, the agencies are not assuming that the 7.8% quarterly pace will continue unchanged.

The latest forecasts show that the 7.8% GDP print has changed the way several global institutions view India's near-term growth outlook.

The debate over the GDP methodology and what the headline number means continues in India. But the response from global forecasters has so far been to raise their estimates for FY27, with S&P, ADB and Moody's at 7%, Fitch at 6.9% and the OECD at 7.1%.

The bigger question now is whether India's domestic demand, investment and industrial activity can remain strong enough to sustain that momentum through the rest of FY27, particularly as energy prices, inflation and geopolitical risks remain in play.- EndsPublished By: Sonu VivekPublished On: Sep 24, 2026 14:57 IST