Intel Shares Plunge Over 50% from 2026 Peak Despite Strong AI Business Growth Brokers Advise Caution - Thairath English
Intel Corporation (INTC) shares faced heavy selling pressure on the Nasdaq stock market on Friday, 30 Oct 2026, closing at $65.76, down $26.31 or 28.58% in a single day.
This followed the company’s disclosure of a Q4 earnings outlook below market expectations amid pressure from a weak PC market, rising memory costs, and costly capacity expansion investments.
This selloff caused Intel’s share price to drop from its 2026 peak of $140.94, reached in late June, down to $65.76, a decline of about 53.3% from the high.
Although the AI-related business is growing strongly, the market is focusing more on profit outlook, cash flow, and investment cost management, reflecting that expectations for AI stocks are facing a test as business growth cannot yet fully offset cost risks.
Reuters reported Intel shares plunged nearly 30% on Friday, marking the steepest single-day drop in company history after Intel forecasted Q4 revenue more than $1 billion below market estimates, and indicated it does not expect positive cash flow this year.
The company expects Q4 revenue between $15 billion and $16 billion, below analyst estimates of about $17.07 billion.
Weakness in the PC market and rising memory prices are pressuring demand for PC chips, a key Intel business that accounted for about half of Q3 revenue.
Additionally, increased memory demand from AI investments has shifted production capacity toward high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, driving up general memory prices and PC costs, which further dampens already weak PC demand. Intel expects Q4 PC chip sales to fall over 20% from the previous quarter.
Beyond PC market issues, capacity expansion and contract chip manufacturing require high investment, while production constraints limit Intel’s ability to fully meet Data Center chip demand.
Also, a two-week factory shutdown in Israel due to an explosion caused an estimated $600 million revenue loss over two quarters.
Morningstar analyst Brian Colello downgraded Intel’s fair value estimate from $105 to $85, citing weak CPU demand and rising memory chip prices pressuring sales.
Concerns extend beyond Intel to tech stocks and supply chain firms after Amazon and Intel’s earnings heightened worries over rising AI investment costs. Amazon reported sharply increased negative free cash flow, while major tech companies continue heavy AI infrastructure investments.
Although AI demand drives the chip industry, rapid investments in Data Centers and AI infrastructure have shifted investor focus to return on investment (ROI) and cash flow.
Innovest X Securities stated a cautious short-term view on Intel shares. Despite strong Data Center and AI growth, PC market contraction, high production costs, and capacity limits risk profit estimate cuts from Q4 2026 through H1 2027.
They recommend waiting for clearer signs of margin recovery and capacity increases before further investment, monitoring PC market recovery, Xeon chip deliveries, and Intel Foundry’s progress in attracting external customers.
Bualuang Securities recommends a wait-and-see approach for Intel-linked DR investment (INTEL01). Although shares have dropped sharply, valuations remain too high.
The current forward P/E is about 46.4 times, above the 5-year average of 34.8 times, inconsistent with shrinking revenue, pressured margins, and heavy investments in contract chip manufacturing that will take years to recover.
They advise waiting for positive catalysts: full production resumption in supply chain factories, PC market recovery, and clear external orders for 18A node chips, all requiring several more quarters to confirm.
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