Ipsos poll predicts coalitions for most of SA’s metros - News24

Five days before South Africans vote in the local government elections, an Ipsos poll shows no party commanding a national majority and most metros headed for coalition negotiations.

The “Pulse of the People” survey, conducted between 12 September and 13 October among 2 533 registered voters, puts the ANC’s support at 30% nationally, compared to the 47% it achieved nationally in the 2021 local government elections.

Hot on their heels is the DA, with 28%, up from 19.9% in 2021. The MK Party (MKP) had 12%, the EFF 10%, and ActionSA 4%. The IFP polled 4% and the Patriotic Alliance 2%.

Ipsos, in its accompanying statement, noted that the survey results suggest that support for the ANC has declined significantly since the 2021 local government elections, but that the party has historically strengthened its support during the final stages of election campaigns.

In Johannesburg, Ipsos has the DA ahead of the ANC with 30% compared to 27%. They’re followed by the EFF with 12% and ActionSA with 11%. This survey’s results would thus have these two parties combined as key players in coalition talks. The MKP has a somewhat surprising 4%, which Ipsos attributes to its fieldwork being conducted during a period of uncertainty surrounding MKP MP Jacob Zuma’s hospitalisation.

In Tshwane, the DA, with 34% and the ANC, with 31%, are a bit further ahead than in Johannesburg. The EFF and ActionSA polled at 8% each, meaning they will also be key coalition negotiators here if the survey results hold true. Here, the FF Plus displaces MKP from fifth place with 5% compared to MKP’s 2%.

The MKP’s stronghold remains eThekwini, where the party polled at 47%. However, this was down from the 66% that an earlier Ipsos poll had them at. The DA is second with 21%, the ANC with 10%, the IFP with 8% and the EFF with 4%.

Ipsos once again surmised that the drop in MKP support could be down to uncertainty over Zuma. They further noted that the DA’s performance is relatively close to their position in 2021, while the ANC and EFF have not recovered the ground they lost to MKP in the 2024 national elections.

From the MKP’s stronghold to the DA’s. Ipsos has the DA at 51% in Cape Town, the same figure the party’s own polling shows. The ANC is in a distant second place with 21%, followed by the EFF with 10% and the PA with 4%.

Ipsos noted that the PA’s decision to exclude journalists from its public meetings may have affected its media exposure and public visibility during the campaign period.

“Current support levels suggest that the party is less likely to pose the significant challenge to the DA in Cape Town that some commentators anticipated earlier. However, the situation may be different in the rural areas of the Western Cape,” reads the statement.

As the margin of error in the other metros was higher, Ipsos did not want to publish those results.

“If these survey results are indicative of the level of political support ahead of the elections, most metropolitan areas, if not all, depending on what happens with the DA in Cape Town and MK in eThekwini, are likely to require coalition governments,” says Mari Harris, political analyst at Ipsos in South Africa.

“This places a significant responsibility on political parties to think carefully about potential coalition partners and the long-term implications of those partnerships.

“It may be tempting for parties to assemble coalition governments simply by securing enough partners to cross the 50% threshold, often through the allocation of key council positions or even mayoral posts; however, coalition negotiations should also consider the values, track record and governing principles of potential partners, as well as the practical realities of working together effectively,” said Harris.

She said several of the coalitions formed after 2021’s elections could be described as marriages of convenience.

“In many instances, these coalitions proved unstable, resulting in frequent changes in leadership and disruptions to service delivery, in many cases to a breaking point.”

Harris said that while it may be harder for similarly sized parties to reach coalition agreements, such arrangements often produce stronger, more balanced, and more stable coalitions.

“They create genuine power-sharing partnerships, better reflect the wishes of voters and, importantly, provide a stronger foundation for effective service delivery at local level.”

Methodology: Ipsos interviewed 3 600 adults across all provinces using multi-stage stratified random sampling, with interviews conducted in respondents’ homes and in their home languages. Results were filtered to 2 533 registered voters. The national margin of error is ±1.95 percentage points at 95% confidence. Metro margins of error are higher: Johannesburg ±5.89, Tshwane ±7.8, eThekwini ±6.42, and Cape Town ±5.95.

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