Iraq nears US troop exit as Iran-backed militias refuse disarmament

Iraq is approaching two major deadlines at the end of September: the withdrawal of remaining US troops and the push to disarm non-state armed groups. While officials say the US military pullout is on track to be completed by September 30, powerful Iran-backed militias have made clear they do not plan to give up their weapons, raising questions about what follows.

The Iraqi government has linked the US withdrawal to the issue of militia disarmament, but officials have given mixed signals on whether September 30 is a firm deadline or the start of negotiations. At the same time, the conflict between the US and Iran has sharpened concerns over attacks by Iraqi militias in Iraq and elsewhere in the region.

US troops first entered Iraq in 2003 to topple Saddam Hussein and left in 2011. They returned in 2014 at the invitation of Iraqi authorities as part of a smaller US-led mission against the Islamic State group after it seized large parts of the country. With the extremist group now reduced to scattered sleeper cells, helped by operations from both Iran-backed militias and the US-led coalition, Washington and Baghdad agreed in 2024 to wind down the mission.

Most US troops left bases across Iraq last year, but several hundred remained in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in the north. A US military official said the withdrawal would be completed by September 30 and that most of the remaining troops would be redeployed to Jordan and other countries in the region. Military equipment, including air defence systems, would also be removed, he said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to comment publicly.

The official said a normal bilateral security cooperation agreement could then be negotiated with the government in Baghdad, though it is still unclear what form that would take. He also said the counterterrorism base in Irbil had lost much of its importance as the Islamic State threat had receded. During the war with Iran, northern Iraq largely did not serve as an offensive platform, but US forces there were often targeted by Iran and Iran-backed Iraqi militias, so pulling troops out will reduce our risk, he said.

Even so, the official said the US military remained concerned about the militias' ability to launch attacks elsewhere in the region, including in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, as well as the presence of Houthi rebel forces in Iraq. Since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have struck US-linked targets inside and outside Iraq and have also coordinated with Yemen's Houthi rebels to attack Saudi Arabia. In the past, the US has retaliated by striking militia sites in Iraq and has imposed sanctions on some groups, with more possible.

On disarmament, Iraqi officials have shifted between describing September 30 as a deadline and as the beginning of a longer process. Speaking at a panel convened by the Atlantic Center think tank last week, Iraqi analyst Sajad Jiyad said, There will be no disarming of any groups by the 30th of September. I think that's probably clear to anybody who watches Iraqi politics.

While some smaller militias have agreed to hand over weapons, the most powerful Iran-aligned groups, including Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, have either rejected the idea or attached conditions that the government is unlikely to meet soon. These include bringing the Kurdish peshmerga forces under the control of the central government's military and expelling Iranian Kurdish dissident groups and the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, from bases in the north.

An official from one of the Iran-backed militias said, After establishing these parameters, discussions will focus on regulating weapons, not surrendering them. There is absolutely no decision among the factions to surrender weapons, and we have not surrendered any weapons. A government official said Baghdad's strategy for now is to bring armed factions under the control of the Iraqi military. Many militias are already part of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, which is officially within the Iraqi armed forces, although individual groups often act independently.

The government official said Baghdad wants armed factions to hand over dynamic weapons, including missiles and long-range aircraft, to the central leadership of the PMF, and for individual factions to be dissolved and placed under the command of the PMF and the Iraqi army. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly. Iraqi government spokesperson Sabah al-Numan said last week that discussions and dialogues are ongoing, and the file will be resolved after the withdrawal of the international coalition forces.

In the Kurdish region, the US withdrawal may remove one target but may not end the attacks. Mohammed A. Salih, a non-resident senior fellow at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert on Kurdish and Iraqi affairs, said Iran and allied groups have targeted other locations in the Kurdistan region that have not been related to the US troops' presence. He said those sites included bases of exiled Iranian Kurdish dissident groups, energy facilities and even the office of the Kurdish region's Prime Minister Masrour Barzani.

Salih added, The withdrawal will expose the Kurdistan region even further and make it an even easier target. Regional government officials declined to comment, but Barzani has publicly voiced concern that the removal of US air defences would leave the area more vulnerable. Numan said last week that Iraq was close to procuring new air defence systems from South Korea, Turkey and the US. He told The Associated Press that the new systems will be deployed according to carefully devised military plans to ensure the complete protection of Iraqi airspace, including the Kurdistan region.

As September 30 approaches, Iraq is set to lose the remaining US military presence while still facing no clear breakthrough on militia disarmament. With attacks continuing and negotiations unresolved, the day after the deadline remains uncertain for Baghdad as well as for the Kurdish region.