Is PTI reading the military right?

The talks in Islamabad between the government and opposition are important but the developments in Rawalpindi far more so. Let's do a deep dive. 1. The Corps Commanders' Conference on Friday issued an official statement that was pointedly sharp and direct. A bit surprising even. It addressed many key issues but I want to focus on the political one. The statement said: "Forum underscored the importance of internal stability and resolved that any attempt to cause agitation or create 9th May like situation, on any pretext whatsoever, will be dealt with decisive force and rule of law, without hesitation and discrimination." 2. In these few words, there are five very distinct and well-considered messages that are timed for maximum impact. Before I spell them out, consider the following for context: (i) talks between the government and opposition in the National Assembly Speaker's chamber are, at best, an attempt to avert a collision, and not meant to find a durable solution to the political problem; (ii) CM K-P Sohail Afridi remains aggressively ambivalent about the exact nature of the long march even as organisational and strategic disagreements within the party hierarchy weigh him down; (iii) Governor's Rule and emergency options for K-P by the federal government remain on the table primarily because they are not linked only to the PTI's long march. There's a bigger game afoot. A hint of this is contained in the five different messages within the statement of the Commanders' conference. Here's the breakdown: 3. "Forum underscored the importance of internal stability…" These words go to the heart of the system's foremost priority. The logic underpinning this priority says that stability in policy, in direction, in politics, and on the streets is key to the governance agenda. The rising wave of terrorism is therefore the main challenge to this notion of stability. So is political agitation that triggers uncertainty, disruption and chaos. This is a reminder to the PTI and also a direct message. 4. "(R)esolved that any attempt to cause agitation or create 9th May like situation…" A deliberate and clear reference to May 9th is essentially a reiteration that the military's policy remains unchanged when it comes to PTI's agitation. The statement could have remained broad in referring to street trouble but it chose to mention May 9th precisely because the military wants the message to be loud, direct and unambiguous. It communicates – not really between the lines – that the talks in Islamabad may agree on some give-and-take but a long march to Islamabad in a huge no-no. 5. "(O)n any pretext whatsoever…" Notice this 'add-on' in the sentence to not only re-emphasise the point but to in fact enlarge and expand the ambit of its definition. Why was this needed? Simply because the statement wants to ensure that any or all reasons or justifications or explanations given for the march or protest or agitation that involve converging on to Islamabad will be rejected, and lumped together as a "9th May like" event. The statement is leaving nothing to chance. 6. "(W)ill be dealt with decisive force and rule of law…" The military is telling anyone who cares to listen – primarily the PTI but also, to a lesser extent, the government – that force will be applied, and that it will be decisive. These are strong words. They are meant to communicate that there is no room for flexibility when it comes to a response to agitation of the kind that the long march is expected to be. This is the military saying don't say you were not warned. This is as explicit a warning as they come. Is it meant to be a deterrent? Yes. Is it only meant to be a deterrent? Clearly no. 7. "(W)ithout hesitation and discrimination…" The choice of these particular words is telling. The lack of hesitation means the law enforcers will be given free hand to use force. It also suggests the scale of the force used may not be contained. The inference is the state will not think twice before using force to ensure stability. The reference to no discrimination on whom the force may be used on probably means that leaders and workers alike will face the brunt if such a situation does indeed arise. 8. Anyone who reads these five different reiterations of the message by the Corps Commanders' conference together should be under no illusions about what the military means. Perhaps even more important is the fact that the military high command has chosen to be unambiguous in its message at a time when PTI is struggling to figure out if the long march is indeed the best course of action to take. The party may have painted itself into a corner by giving dates. The military is conveying to the PTI there will be no negotiations if there is a gun to the head. It is also telling the government the same thing. 9. Expect very little that will be offered to the PTI. The military's statement has ensured that. Such a strongly worded statement may not have been issued if the PTI had not escalated the situation to where it has reached today. Climbing up such an escalatory ladder is easy and often tempting, but climbing down entails a cost. What will this cost be? Imposition of Emergency or Governor's Rule? Further disarray in PTI's leadership? Greater stiffening of the military's attitude towards the PTI? It is hard to say at this point. What is not too hard to understand is that PTI's internal confusion, and its inability or unwillingness to sustain pressure from its rank and file has forced it to make a series of decisions that were not well thought out. 10. The important promotions and postings within the military high command have formalised the culmination of a routine institutional process that was overdue. This may not be connected directly to the churn of politics but it does infuse greater continuity of policy with a relatively new team. PTI needs to start reading the institution better. If there's a bottom line here, it is that the system is re-asserting itself and reinforcing its strategic agenda. The long march, or the threat of it, has only forced it to double down and dig in its heels further.