James Talarico and Donald Trump’s Texas Rally Crowd Sizes Compared: Photos - Newsweek

President Donald Trump and Democrat James Talarico held dueling rallies in deep-red Lubbock, with photos and reports indicating that both events drew thousands of supporters.

In a post on social media Tuesday night, State Representative Talarico said 4,000 people attended his rally at the Fiesta Center while Trump spoke at an event across town in support of Talarico's Republican opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Talarico shared an image that showed a packed venue, writing: "Lubbock County voted for President Trump by 40 points. Tonight 4,000 people showed up at our rally. Texans are ready for change."

It wasn't immediately clear if Talarico's figure includes supporters who were turned away after the venue was filled. The venue’s ballroom accommodates up to 2,600 people, and KAMC reporter Jen Phillips reported that officials were planning to stretch capacity to 3,000. The Texas Tribune reported that the line for the event spanned several city blocks.

Meanwhile, Trump and Paxton appeared for a rally at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center, with a reporter for The Amarillo Tribune estimating the arena was full with around 4,000 attendees. The center’s exhibit hall is listed as having a maximum capacity of 4,914.

Newsweek contacted the Talarico and Paxton campaigns via email for comment about the turnout for the rallies.

While the estimates indicate that Trump's rally may have drawn a larger crowd, the turnout for Talarico was notable given Lubbock County is a longtime Republican stronghold and the president was campaigning for his opponent at the same time.

Trump carried Lubbock County by 40 points in 2024, and the county has not voted for a Democratic president since 1964.

It comes as the race between Talarico and Paxton, one of the most closely watched contests of this election cycle, is the closest Texas Senate race in a generation.

If Talarico wins, it would give Democrats their first win in a U.S. Senate race in reliably red Texas since 1988 and could help decide party control of the Senate.

Most polls show Talarico leading Paxton by 2 to 5 points, and Democrats are more confident about Texas than they have been since Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 points of unseating Senator Ted Cruz in 2018.

With one week until Election Day, Trump was in Texas for the fourth time since Labor Day—a reflection of how close the Senate race is in a reliably red state where a Democrat has not won statewide office since 1994.

He has been traveling across the country to shore up Republican strongholds against unusually competitive Democratic candidates as his war in Iran has spiked gas prices, adding pressure on GOP candidates across the U.S.

Republicans are hoping Trump’s visit to Lubbock will motivate his staunchest supporters to vote in a contest where Talarico has capitalized on the difficult political environment and Paxton’s history of ethical and legal problems.

Republicans need rural counties to supply at least a quarter of all votes to keep winning statewide. So far, turnout in the cities has run far ahead of 2022. Through October 23, voters with a Democratic primary history outnumbered those with a Republican one by about 75,000.

Talarico’s visit to Lubbock is a bet that he can shave a few points off GOP margins in a region that Democrats tend to write off. O’Rourke tried something similar in 2018, with a rally at the same Lubbock Memorial Civic Center on October 29 of that year. He carried only 31 of the state’s 254 counties.

“This doesn’t necessarily mean that a bunch of Republicans have become Democrats in Texas,” Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas, told Newsweek.

“It’s more that Republican voters might not be as enthusiastic to vote this year as they have been in the past.”

Recent polls have consistently put Talarico ahead.

The latest survey, from Univision and conducted by YouGov, gave him his widest lead, with 50 percent support to Paxton’s 45 percent. The survey was conducted among 1,000 registered voters from October 13 to 21. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Another recent survey from ActiVote, conducted among 400 likely voters, found the race was tighter, with Talarico ahead of Paxton by two points, 51 percent to 49 percent. That survey was conducted among 400 likely voters from October 17 to 21, with an average expected error of 4.9 percent.

Verasight, polling for VoteHub from October 1 to 20, had Talarico leading 48 percent to 45 percent among 601 likely voters.

An Emerson College/Nexstar poll also found Talarico ahead, 48 percent to 46 percent, among 1,000 likely voters surveyed from October 17 to 19. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. When undecided voters were pressed to choose, Talarico’s lead narrowed to 49 percent to 48 percent, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent.

Update 10/28/26, 7:17 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.