James Talarico Gets Boost From Trump Voters in New Poll - Newsweek

Democratic Texas Senate hopeful James Talarico has the support of a significantly higher proportion of 2024 Donald Trump voters than his Republican opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton, does from 2024 Kamala Harris voters, according to a new Big Data Poll.

Democrats are hoping to flip the Senate and the House at the November midterms, either one of which would significantly impede President Trump’s ability to get legislation passed during the final two years of his second term. Winning a Senate seat from Texas, a traditional Republican stronghold, would be a major coup for the Democrats who last won a Senate race in The Lone Star State in 1988.

Newsweek contacted the Talarico and Paxton Senate campaigns for comment on Monday via email outside of regular office hours.

Polling company Big Data Poll surveyed 698 likely Texas voters between September 24 and September 26. The headline figure is Talarico, currently a Texas State Representative, leads Paxton by 44.6 percent of the vote to 41.6 percent once voters who only “lean” toward one candidate are excluded.

Notably Talarico has the support of 15 percent of voters who say they backed Trump at the 2024 presidential election, while Paxton only has the backing of 4.3 percent of those who say they voted for Harris. Similarly, 89.3 percent of 2024 Harris voters said they would support Talarico, compared to only 72.2 percent of 2024 Trump voters for Paxton. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

In 2024, Trump won Texas by a margin of 13.7 percentage points, with 56.2 percent of the vote against 42.5 percent for Harris.

The Big Data Poll findings on Talarico and Paxton’s support from 2024 presidential election campaign voters is matched by the results of a SoCal Strategies poll of 649 likely Texas voters, conducted from 12 to 13 September.

This survey found Talarico has the support of 95 percent of voters who backed Harris in 2024 along with 14 percent of Trump voters from that year. By contrast, Paxton has the backing of 84 percent of 2024 Trump voters and only four percent of 2024 Harris voters.

Noticeably, SoCal Strategies found Paxton performs significantly worse with 2024 Harris voters than Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who is being challenged by Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Abbott has the backing of 89 percent of 2024 Trump voters and 13 percent of Harris voters, while Hinojosa is backed by 87 percent of Harris voters and nine percent of Trump voters.

Overall, the SoCal Strategies poll gave Talarico a five-point lead with 50 percent of the vote to 45 percent for Paxton. By contrast, it found Abbott lead Hinojosa by 52 percent against 44 percent.

Friday saw the publication of a Texas Public Opinion Research survey, which found Talarico was leading Paxton by five points, with 49 percent of the vote against 44 percent.

This survey of 1,007 likely Texas voters was conducted between September 19 and 22 and had a 3.6 percent margin of error.

However, a Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 likely Texan voters gave Talarico a lead of just two percentage point, with 47 percent of the vote to Paxton’s 45 percent. This survey was conducted between July 27 and 30.

According to prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, Talarico’s odds of winning in November have improved dramatically over the past couple of months.

Polymarket now gives Talarico a 61 percent chance of victory versus 40 percent for Paxton. By contrast, on July 28, Paxton led by 56 percent to 44 percent. Due to rounding, the percentages don’t always add up to 100.

Similarly, Talarico has a 59 percent chance of getting elected on Kalshi against 41 percent for Paxton. But on July 28, Paxton was the frontrunner with a 57 percent chance of victory to Talarico’s 43 percent.

Trump-endorsed Paxton has been a controversial candidate even with Texas Republicans, which could help explain why he polls notably below Governor Abbott.

Paxton defeated incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn, who branded him a “known con man and fraud” in a bitterly fought May primary runoff. Cornyn has said he will not campaign for Paxton in the Senate election.

In 2023, Paxton was impeached by the GOP controlled Texas House following allegations of abuse of public trust and unfitness for office. He denied any wrongdoing and was found not guilty by the state Senate.

Talarico has also attracted controversy for various comments he has made regarding Christianity. During a 2021 Texas House speech, he said “God is nonbinary,” adding: “God is both Masculine and feminine, and everything in between.”

Appearing on the Active Theology podcast that same year, Talarico said: “I always think of myself as a Christian who hates Christianity, right. And, like, I always get drawn back into it because nowhere else, in no other political philosophy, in no other economic theory, do I find anything as truly radical or revolutionary as the teachings of that barefoot rabbi.”

Paxton’s campaign shared a video of an AI-generated Talarico calling himself “a Christian who hates Christianity” earlier this month, but without his follow up remarks.

Last week, Talarico challenged Paxton to a televised debate on Fox News during the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin.

In July, Nick Maddux, Paxton’s senior campaign advisor, said “of course we are going to debate James Talarico,” but no debate has yet been scheduled.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes and Cristina Diciu.