James Talarico is Outraising Ken Paxton in Texas’ Republican Strongholds - Newsweek

Some of the richest traditionally Republican neighborhoods in Texas have given more money to a Democrat this year than to the GOP nominee for the Senate.

According to an analysis of Federal Election Commission records by reporters at The Houston Chronicle, Democratic Senate hopeful James Talarico is outperforming Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in fundraising in ZIP codes that have previously backed President Donald Trump.

The fundraising numbers come as Texas has surged to the forefront as a key state in the battle to control the Senate. Democrats are hoping to win a Senate seat in the Lone Star State for the first time since 1988 by capitalizing on Trump's low polling numbers.

In University Park, a town that sits entirely inside a district that Trump carried by more than 5 points in 2024, Talarico has raised $214,296, more than 18 percent more than Paxton's $181,656 through June 30.

The town represents the second-largest source of individual contributions to Paxton's Senate campaign of any ZIP code in the country.

The fundraising numbers there are not an isolated result. Across 11 different ZIP codes in four metropolitan areas that fall inside state House districts Trump won in 2024, Talarico raised about $1.3 million from individual donors, compared with roughly $422,000 for Paxton.

Newsweek reached out to the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comment Wednesday.

The Chronicle analysis mapped itemized individual contributions to each campaign by the ZIP code in which the donor reported.

The widest gaps are in The Woodlands, a community north of Houston. Across the four ZIP codes covering the area and the suburbs around it, Talarico raised $238,622 to Paxton's $39,281. In 77381, at the center of The Woodlands, the split was $98,103 to $19,247. In 77386, covering Spring and Imperial Oaks, it was $68,076 to $4,476.

West Houston runs the same way. Talarico raised $255,116 in 77024, the ZIP code for the Memorial Villages, against $60,643 for Paxton. In 77079, farther west along Memorial Drive, he raised $98,189 to Paxton's $10,405.

In the Katy and Richmond suburbs, Talarico raised $152,557 across two ZIP codes, compared with $50,228 for Paxton.

In 75230, which covers part of North Dallas below Interstate 635, Paxton raised $77,116, compared with $270,286 for Talarico.

The Dallas suburb Highland Park remains Paxton's single best ZIP code in the country, at $211,701.

The money is moving to Talarico through parts of Texas that had previously had a Republican grip, according to the Chronicle analysis.

The four Woodlands ZIP codes where Talarico has outgained Paxton sit entirely within House District 15, which Trump won handily—62.8 percent to 35.8 percent—over Kamala Harris in 2024. Montgomery County as a whole gave Trump about 72 percent of its vote. The Memorial ZIP codes sit almost entirely inside House District 133, which Trump carried 52.4 percent to 45.4 percent. The Katy and Richmond ZIP codes fall in House District 26, which he won with 56.3 percent.

Election results are not reported specifically by ZIP code, so the closest official measure is the state House district each ZIP code sits in. The Texas Legislative Council publishes both those results and the share of every ZIP code's population inside each district.

Highland Park and University Park sit entirely within House District 108, along with part of northern Dallas and about 76 percent of ZIP code 75230. Trump won that district with 51.7 percent to Harris's 46 percent, according to the Legislative Council's official district report. The president won Texas easily in 2024, topping Harris by more than 13 percent of the vote.

Despite the gains in Republican areas, Talarico's largest fundraising hauls still come from places that voted against Trump.

The Democrat's best ZIP code in Texas is 78746, covering West Lake Hills and neighborhoods west of Austin, where he raised $584,863 to Paxton's $145,365. That ZIP code is 92 percent inside a House district that Harris won 69 percent to 28.6 percent. In Houston's 77019, which includes River Oaks, Talarico raised $429,975; the ZIP code did not rank among Paxton's top 10 nationwide, and his tenth-largest brought in $72,318.

The gap between the two campaigns did not grow wider in a single quarter. It came as Paxton's fundraising stalled while he fought longtime Senator John Cornyn for the Republican nomination.

Paxton raised about $2.9 million in the second quarter of 2025, the first full quarter of his campaign. He then raised $1.3 million in the third quarter, $1.1 million in the fourth, and $2.2 million in the first quarter of 2026.

His numbers did not move until the primary was settled. Paxton won the May 26 runoff against Cornyn and went on to report more than $9 million for the April-through-June quarter, the best of his campaign.

Talarico entered the race on September 8, 2025, and raised $6.2 million in his first three weeks. He raised $7 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, $27 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $31.6 million in the second.

Through June 30, Talarico's campaign reported raising $68.6 million and spending $47 million, leaving $21.5 million in the bank. Paxton's two committees reported $9.2 million raised, $7.5 million spent and $1.76 million on hand.

The fundraising analysis comes as reports emerged that Paxton pointed the finger at Trump for being a drag on the ticket.

At a private fundraiser in Washington last Thursday, Paxton was asked whether Trump had hurt the campaign. Paxton said the Republican convention the president staged in Dallas on September 9 and September 10 "dropped our numbers," according to a recording obtained by The New York Times. He said everyone's numbers had fallen and described the party's current position as not good.

The recording was made by someone who attended the event and opposes Paxton's campaign, and was then given to the Times. Three other attendees confirmed to the paper that Paxton was present, and two recalled the question being asked of him.

Nick Maddux, a senior adviser to the Paxton campaign, called the reporting "manipulated nonsense." He said the campaign's most recent internal polling put Paxton three points ahead and that its numbers had improved since early September.

Trump had also previously said that the Dallas event helped Paxton a great deal.

On Wednesday, Trump was asked about the report and said he had not heard Paxton's comments but acknowledged that "it's possible" the convention could have hurt his campaign.

Trump nonetheless called the event "amazing," claiming that it drew 107 million views, and that other candidates were helped "greatly."

Most public polling of the Texas Senate race continues to show Talarico ahead, although the margins are narrow.

Of eight September surveys, six put Talarico ahead by one to six points. One found the race tied, while another, sponsored by Paxton's campaign, gave him a three-point lead.

The latest poll, conducted by Pulse Decision Science from September 24 to September 27, surveyed 800 likely voters and found Paxton at 48 percent and Talarico at 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided. The poll was sponsored by Paxton's campaign. Its three-point margin matches the internal figure Maddux cited in dismissing the fundraiser recording.

Stratus Intelligence found a 48-48 tie among 865 likely voters surveyed from September 22 to September 24 for Texans for a Conservative Majority, a Republican group. Like the Pulse poll, it was sponsored by a Republican client.

Among the nonpartisan surveys, Talarico has maintained a lead.

Marist University surveyed 1,139 registered voters from September 17 to September 20 and found Talarico ahead 50 percent to 44 percent, his largest lead of the month. Emerson College, polling for Nexstar, found him ahead 47 percent to 46 percent among 1,000 likely voters surveyed September 12 to September 14. The New York Times includes Marist and Emerson among its select group of pollsters.

Other September surveys showed narrower leads.

Slingshot Strategies, polling for Texas Public Opinion Research, found Talarico ahead 49 percent to 44 percent among 1,007 likely voters surveyed September 19 to September 22. Big Data Poll had Talarico ahead 47 percent to 45 percent from September 24 to September 26, with Libertarian candidate Brown at 8 percent. The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center found Talarico ahead by one point among 1,800 likely voters surveyed September 15 to September 19. Republican pollster Trafalgar Group also found Talarico ahead by one point, 46 percent to 45 percent, in a mid-September survey.

With the exception of the Marist poll, all of the September margins fall within the surveys' margins of error.